To study the effects of ice accretion on the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of an aircraft, a two-part method for predicting longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives of iced aircraft is proposed. For the aircraft with a flight test, a parameter identification system based on maximum likelihood criterion and a longitudinal nonlinear flight dynamics model is established. For the aircraft without a flight test, an engineering prediction method of aerodynamic derivatives based on an individual component CFD calculation and narrow strip theory is established. According to the flight test data of DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft from NASA, the longitudinal aerodynamic parameters of both clean and artificially iced aircraft are obtained. Additionally, the longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives of the iced aircraft are calculated. Then, the correctness of the prediction method is verified by comparing the calculated results with the identification results. The comparison of these results shows that the prediction method is correct and accurate, and it can be used to calculate the effects of icing on the aircraft longitudinal aerodynamic parameters.
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