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The CUSUM control chart is suitable for detecting small to moderate parameter shifts for processes involving autocorrelated data. The average run length (ARL) can be used to assess the ability of a CUSUM control chart to detect changes in a long-memory seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average with exogenous variable (SARFIMAX) process with underlying exponential white noise. Herein, new ARLs via an analytical integral equation (IE) solution as an analytical IE and a numerical IE method to test a CUSUM control chart’s ability to detect a wide range of shifts in the mean of a SARFIMAX(P, D, Q, r)s process with underlying exponential white noise are presented. The analytical IE formulas were derived by using the Fredholm integral equation of the second type while the numerical IE method for the approximate ARL is based on quadrature rules. After applying Banach’s fixed-point theorem to guarantee its existence and uniqueness, the precision of the proposed analytical IE ARL was the same as the numerical IE method. The sensitivity and accuracy of the ARLs based on both methods were assessed on a CUSUM control chart running a SARFIMAX(P, D, Q, r)s process with underlying exponential white noise. The results of an extensive numerical study comprising the examination of a wide variety of out-of-control situations and computational schemes reveal that none of the methods outperformed the IE. Specifically, the computational scheme is easier and can be completed in one step. Hence, it is recommended for use in this situation. An illustrative example based on real data is also provided, the results of which were found to be in accordance with the research results.

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Numerical evaluation of the average run length (ARL) when detecting changes in the mean of an autocorrelated process running on an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart has received considerable attention. However, accurate computation of the ARL of changes in the mean of a long-memory model with an exogenous (X) variable, which often occurs in practice, is challenging. Herein, we provide an accurate determination of the ARL for long-memory models such as the fractionally integrated MAX processes (FIMAX) with exponential white noise running on an EWMA control chart by using an analytical formula based on an integral equation. From a computational perspective, the analytical formula approach is accomplished by solving the solution for the integral equation obtained via the Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. Moreover, the existence and uniqueness of the solution for the analytical formula were confirmed via Banach’s fixed-point theorem. Its efficacy was compared with that of the ARL derived by using the well-known numerical integral equation (NIE) technique under the same circumstances in terms of the ARL percentage accuracy and computational processing time. The percentage accuracy was 100%, which indicates excellent agreement between the two methods, and the analytical formula also required much less computational processing time. An example to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach with a process involving real data running on an EWMA control chart is also provided herein. The explicit formula method offers an accurate determination of the ARL and a new approach for validating its computation, especially for long-memory scenarios running on EWMA control charts.

The modified exponentially weighted moving-average (modified EWMA) control chart is an improvement on the traditional EWMA control chart. Herein, we provide more details about the modified EWMA control chart using various values of an additional design parameter for detecting small-to-moderate shifts in the process mean of an autoregressive fractionally integrated (ARFI(p, d)) process with exponential white noise running thereon. The statistical performances of the two charts were evaluated in terms of the average run length (ARL) obtained by solving integral equations (IEs). This provides an exact formula with proven existence and uniqueness verified by applying Banach’s fixed-point theorem. The accuracy of the proposed formula for the ARL was compared with the ARL derived by using the numerical IE technique for the out-of-control state. Although their accuracies were identical for various out-of-control situations and long-term memory processes, the exact formula method required less than 0.01 s to compute the ARL whereas the numerical IE method took 3–4 s. The strengths of using the exact formula are that it is simple to calculate and the computational time is significantly reduced. Comparing their standard deviations of the run length and median run lengths yielded the same results. Finally, practical examples with real-life data corresponding to ARFI(p, d) processes with exponential white noise are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed exact formula.