Biodiversity varies predictably with environmental energy around the globe, but the underlaying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. The evolutionary speed hypothesis predicts that environmental kinetic energy shapes variation in speciation rates through temperature- or life history-dependent rates of evolution. To test whether variation in evolutionary speed can explain the relationship between energy and biodiversity in birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles, we simulated diversification over 65 million years of geological and climatic change with a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary simulation model. We modelled four distinct evolutionary scenarios in which speciation-completion rates were dependent on temperature (M1), life history (M2), temperature and life history (M3), or were independent of temperature and life-history (M0). To assess the agreement between simulated and empirical data, we performed model selection by fitting supervised machine learning models to multidimensional biodiversity patterns. We show that a model with temperature-dependent rates of speciation (M1) consistently had the strongest support. In contrast to statistical inferences, which showed no general relationships between temperature and speciation rates in tetrapods, we demonstrate how process-based modelling can disentangle the causes behind empirical biodiversity patterns. Our study highlights how environmental energy has played a fundamental role in the evolution of biodiversity over deep time.

Islands are hotspots of plant endemism and are particularly vulnerable to the establishment (naturalization) of alien plant species. Naturalized species richness on islands depends on several biogeographical and socioeconomic factors, but especially on remoteness. One potential explanation for this is that the phylogenetically imbalanced composition of native floras on remote islands leaves unoccupied niche space for alien species to colonize. Here, we tested whether the species richness of naturalized seed plants on 249 islands worldwide is related to the phylogenetic composition of their native floras. To this end, we calculated standardized effect size (ses) accounting for species richness for three phylogenetic assemblage metrics (Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD), PDses; mean pairwise distance (MPD), MPDses; and mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD), MNTDses) based on a phylogeny of 42 135 native island plant species and related them to naturalized species richness. As covariates in generalized linear mixed models, we included native species richness and biogeographical, climatic and socioeconomic island characteristics known to affect naturalized species richness. Our analysis showed an increase in naturalized species richness with increasing phylogenetic clustering of the native assemblages (i.e. native species more closely related