No abstract

We have conducted an empirical study of a number of computer security exploits and determined that the rates at which incidents involving the exploit are reported to the CERT can be modeled using a common mathematical framework. Data associated with three significant exploits involving vulnerabilities in phf, imap, and bind can all be modeled using the formula Á · Ë ¢ Ô Å where is the cumulative count of reported incidents, Å is the time since the start of the exploit cycle, and Á and Ë are the regression coefficients determined by analysis of the incident report data. Further analysis of two additional exploits involving vulnerabilities in mountd and statd confirm the model. We believe that the models will aid in predicting the severity of subsequent vulnerability exploitations, based on the rate of early incident reports. A Trend Analysis of Exploitations AbstractWe have conducted an empirical study of a number of computer security exploits and determined that the rates at which incidents involving the exploit are reported to the CERT can be modeled using a common mathematical framework. Data associated with three significant exploits involving vulnerabilities in phf, imap, and bind can all be modeled using the formula Á · Ë ¢ Ô Å where is the cumulative count of reported incidents, Å is the time since the start of the exploit cycle, and Á and Ë are the regression coefficients determined by analysis of the incident report data. Further analysis of two additional exploits involving vulnerabilities in mountd and statd confirm the model. We believe that the models will aid in predicting the severity of subsequent vulnerability exploitations, based on the rate of early incident reports.

No abstract

The authors propose a life-cycle model for system vulnerabilities, then apply it to three case studies to reveal how systems often remain vulnerable long after security fixes are available.