No abstract

Many of the fungal pathogens that threaten agricultural and natural systems undergo wind-assisted dispersal. During turbulent wind conditions, long-distance dispersal can occur, and airborne spores are carried over distances greater than the mean. The occurrence of long-distance dispersal is an important ecological process, as it can drastically increase the extent to which pathogen epidemics spread across a landscape, result in rapid transmission of disease to previously uninfected areas, and influence the spatial structure of pathogen populations in fragmented landscapes. Since the timing of spore release determines the wind conditions that prevail over a dispersal event, this timing is likely to affect the probability of long-distance dispersal occurring. Using a Lagrangian stochastic model, we test the effect of seasonal and diurnal variation in the release of spores on wind-assisted dispersal. Spores released during the hottest part of the day are shown to be more likely to undergo long-distance dispersal than those released at other times. Furthermore, interactions are shown to occur between seasonal and diurnal patterns of release. These results have important consequences for further modelling of wind-assisted dispersal and the use of models to predict the spread of fungal pathogens and resulting population and epidemic dynamics.

Aim The aim of this study is to determine whether changes to the seasonal and circadian timing of propagule release can a have a significant effect on the area covered by resulting aerial dispersal.Location Western Australia.Methods Using the atmospheric pollution model (TAPM), an existing mesoscale dispersal model, a range of release patterns was simulated and the resulting deposition compared. Comparisons were based on observations of deposition patterns and the calculated area of deposition.Results Small changes to the timing of propagule release were shown to significantly impact on the area experiencing deposition from the resulting aerial dispersal.Main conclusions Simulations performed in this study show that, for small propagules, changes to the timing of release can lead to alternate, clearly differentiable dispersal events. Small changes in both the seasonal and circadian patterns of release can have significant effects on the area that experiences deposition during the resulting dispersal event. This effect is particularly important at the landscape scale and when there is a need to quantify individual dispersal events. Predictive modelling of aerial dispersal needs to be undertaken with an understanding of the manner in which biological and environmental factors that affect the timing of propagule release can influence results. Results presented highlight the need to characterize the epidemiology of pathogenic organisms of importance to biosecurity as much as possible before they arrive.