We tested the hypothesis that recent oceanographic changes associated with climate change in the Northeast United States continental shelf ecosystem have caused a change in spatial distribution of marine fish. To do this, we analyzed temporal trends from 1968 to 2007 in the mean center of biomass, mean depth, mean temperature of occurrence, and area occupied in each of 36 fish stocks. Temporal trends in distribution were compared to time series of both local-and large-scale environmental variables, as well as estimates of survey abundance. Many stocks spanning several taxonomic groups, life-history strategies, and rates of fishing exhibited a poleward shift in their center of biomass, most with a simultaneous increase in depth, and a few with a concomitant expansion of their northern range. However, distributional changes were highly dependent on the biogeography of each species. Stocks located in the southern extent of the survey area exhibited much greater poleward shifts in center of biomass and some occupied habitats at increasingly greater depths. In contrast, minimal changes in the center of biomass were observed in stocks with distributions limited to the Gulf of Maine, but mean depth of these stocks increased while stock size decreased. Largescale temperature increase and changes in circulation, represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, was the most important factor associated with shifts in the mean center of biomass. Stock size was more often correlated with the total area occupied by each species. These changes in spatial distribution of fish stocks are likely to persist such that stock structure should be re-evaluated for some species.

We examined a suite of abiotic, biotic, and human metrics for the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem at the aggregate, community, and system level (>30 different metrics) over three decades. Our primary goals were to describe ecosystem status, to improve understanding of the relationships between key ecosystem processes, and to evaluate potential reference points for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). To this end, empirical indicators of ecosystem status were examined and standard multivariate statistical methods were applied to describe changes in the system. We found that (i) a suite of metrics is required to accurately characterize ecosystem status and, conversely, that focusing on a few metrics may be misleading; (ii) assessment of ecosystem status is feasible for marine ecosystems; (iii) multivariate points of reference can be determined for EBFM; and (iv) the concept of reference directions could provide an ecosystem level analog to single-species reference points.

Overholtz, W. J. and Link, J. S. 2007. Consumption impacts by marine mammals, fish, and seabirds on the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) complex during the years 1977–2002. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 83–96. A comprehensive study of the impact of predation during the years 1977–2002 on the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank herring complex is presented. An uncertainty approach was used to model input variables such as predator stock size, daily ration, and diet composition. Statistical distributions were constructed on the basis of available data, producing informative and uninformative inputs for estimating herring consumption within an uncertainty framework. Consumption of herring by predators tracked herring abundance closely during the study period, as this important prey species recovered following an almost complete collapse during the late 1960s and 1970s. Annual consumption of Atlantic herring by four groups of predators, demersal fish, marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds, averaged just 58 000 t in the late 1970s, increased to 123 000 t between 1986 and 1989, 290 000 t between 1990 and 1994, and 310 000 t during the years 1998–2002. Demersal fish consumed the largest proportion of this total, followed by marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds. Sensitivity analyses suggest that future emphasis should be placed on collecting time-series of diet composition data for marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds, with additional monitoring focused on the abundance of seabirds and daily rations of all groups.

Analysis of spawning stock biomass per recruit has been used to evaluate the effects of fishing mortality and age at first capture on the spawning potential of a stock. This technique, which is analogous to yield‐per‐recruit analysis, is used to analyze stock‐recruitment data. It may be used to develop a long‐term management strategy to maintain or enhance spawning stock biomass. We analyzed fishery data on Georges Bank haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus by using this technique. Currently, this stock is at about 16% of the maximum possible spawning stock biomass per recruit, but it appears that this ratio must reach at least 30% to maintain the stock at its present level, if recent recruitment patterns persist.