All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.
Recent reports and scholarship suggest that adapting to current climate variability may represent a 'no regrets' strategy for adapting to climate change. Addressing 'adaptation deficits' and other approaches that target existing vulnerabilities are helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we argue that they may not be sufficient for adapting to climate change. Through a review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we identify why the dynamics of vulnerability matter for adaptation efforts. We draw on vulnerability theory and the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures to outline how adaptation to climate variability, combined with the shifting societal landscape can sometimes lead to unintended consequences and increased vulnerability. Moreover, we argue that public perceptions of risk associated with current climate variability do not necessarily position communities to adapt to the impacts from climate change. We suggest that decision makers faced with adapting to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. We conclude by suggesting the need for greater engagement with various publics on the tradeoffs involved in adaptation action and for improving communication about the complicated nature of the dynamics of vulnerability.
We examine the rate of ranch sales and the nature of ranchland ownership change in the Rocky Mountain region. Interest in this phenomenon is high because ranches represent the largest parcels of private open space and relatively natural landscapes in the West and because anecdote, media coverage, and testimony from range professionals suggest that a significant turnover in ranch ownership is underway. Ranch sales activity is of special interest to groups seeking to conserve both ranchlands as habitat and ranching as part of the regional economy and culture. Very little work has been conducted on ranchland ownership per se, although we were able to build on studies of ranchland prices and on surveys that included some questions relating to operational goals, tenure, and future plans. The literature also offers a foundation for a ranch ownership typology. We tracked sales of ranch properties of 400 or more acres in 3 Rocky Mountain counties for the period 1990-2001, finding turnover (sale) rates from 14% to 45%. With help from local real estate agents, appraisers, and county officials, we classified ranch buyers according to a simple typology and found that the majority of acres sold (54%) went to ''amenity buyers,'' and 62% of acres sold went to out-of-state buyers. This 12-year slice of ranch sales suggests a significant ranchland ownership transition to a new type of owner is, indeed, underway in the Rockies.
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