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We present results from modelling studies, which suggest that, at most, only about 10-20% of recently observed soil carbon losses in England and Wales could possibly be attributable to climate warming. Further, we present reasons why the actual losses of SOC from organic soils in England and Wales might be lower than those reported.

To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils -Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation error, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be ~11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (-4%).

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The change in soil carbon (C) stock over a 19-31-year period (mean 25 years) has been measured at 179 sites on a 20-km grid across Scotland. Sampling was by horizon from a profile pit. Although soil bulk density determinations were absent at the first sampling time, we used bulk density values from the second sampling time calibrated against NIR spectra to predict the missing values. There was no detectable change in overall total soil C stock (mean ± standard error, to a depth of 100 cm), which was 266 ± 15 and 270 ± 15 t C ha −1 for the first and second sampling times, respectively, or generally in C stock within specific vegetation or soil types. The exception was for soils under woodland, excluding those on deep peat, which exhibited a significant (P = 0.05) gain of 1.0 t C ha −1 year −1 . Soils under woodland (mainly coniferous plantation) also showed a significant (P = 0.04) increase in C content (g kg −1 ), a significant decrease in bulk density (P = 0.006) and an increase in the thickness of the Litter-Fermentation-Humus (LFH) layer (P = 0.06). Recalculating the C stock to a depth of 15 cm showed a significant increase in overall C stock (when deep peat sites were excluded) as well as specifically in moorland and woodland soils, suggesting that had we sampled only to 15 cm, we would have reached a different conclusion. Both improved grassland soils and those initially under arable cultivation showed a significant decrease in C content. However, the mean thickness of Ap horizons increased from 29 to 32 cm, with a concomitant decrease in C content and a slight increase in bulk density; this we ascribe to deeper ploughing between the sample periods. In the context of possible soil C losses, we can be 95% confident that the mean loss does not exceed 0.2% year −1 and 99% confident that it does not exceed 0.4% year −1 .