Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

Bet hedging is a means to increase fitness in environments that vary unpredictably in space and time. In such environments, models predict a trade-off between the bet-hedging strategies dispersal and dormancy, while the increasing importance of risk reduction with decreasing predictability should lead to an increase in dispersal and dormancy along gradients of environmental predictability. However, so far there has been no experimental study to test these predictions in the field. Here, we used a set of novel field experiments that enabled us to quantify and separate seedling recruitment from three sources: local reproduction, dormancy, and dispersal. The study included the entire plant community from five environments differing considerably in predictability. Evidence for both the existence of a trade-off between dispersal and dormancy within environments and their increased use in unpredictable environments was very weak. The importance of dispersal for population and community dynamics in our system was extremely low relative to dormancy and local reproduction. This indicates that the role of dispersal for buffering environmental variation may be negligible compared with other risk-reducing strategies. Our findings highlight the urgent need for multispecies and multisite experiments in empirical tests of theoretical predictions.

Verbandsnachrichten der FKT - Fachvereinigung Krankenhaustechnik (e. V.). Diese Seiten sind nur als PDF-Dokument verfügbar.