This study aims to develop autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the solar, wind, spot and options pricing over the next 2 years, with historical data being used in a univariate manner to understand market behaviour in terms of trends. The assessment is made in the context of the Australian National Electricity Market (ANEM). The ARIMA models predict the future values of the monthly solar, wind, spot and options prices for various Australian states using time-series data from January 2006 to March 2018. The results show increases from 30.46% to 40.42% for the spot electricity prices and from 14.80% to 15.13% for the options electricity prices in the ANEM with a 2-year horizon. The results further show that wind prices are expected to increase by an average of 5.43%. However, the results also show that the average solar electricity prices will decrease by 67.7%.

The present study employed various qualitative techniques to investigate the nature and influence of policies and regulations concerning solar and wind pricing on the Australian electricity spot and options markets. The analysis was based on data gathered through interviews conducted with energy managers, chief executive officers and other significant personnel from the Australian electricity industry. The interviewees' responses regarding the solar and wind policies of relevance to the Australian electricity markets were examined, and the thick and in-depth content data derived from the interviews were used to examine how their views and personal politics influenced pricing within the electricity markets. The results suggest that renewable energy policies lower the electricity prices, reduce the risks for investors and also result in larger deployment mechanisms.