No abstract

A land-use-change simulation model (LEAM) and a non-point-source (NPS) water quality model (L-THIA) were closely coupled as LEAMwq in order to determine the long-term implications of various degree of urbanization on NPS total nitrogen (TN), total suspended particles (TSP), and total phosphorus (TP) loads. A future land-use projection in the St. Louis metropolitan area from 2005 to 2030 using three economic growth scenarios (base, low, and high) and a long-term precipitation dataset were used to predict the mean annual surface runoff and mean annual NPS pollutant loads in the region. Results show mean annual TN increases of 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.14% by 2030 compared to 2000 under the base, high, and low scenarios, respectively. TSP and TP showed similar trends with different magnitudes. Corresponding changes in annual mean surface runoff were shown to be lower than expected, which might be attributed to the small-scale conversion pattern of land uses. In the most dramatic change (high growth) scenario, the runoff would increase across time but at varying rates, and temporal pollutant loads would result in a more complicated pattern than in the other scenarios. This is attributed to the complex interactions between event mean concentrations of pollutants and the magnitude of changes in land-use acre-ages. By integrating L-THIA with LEAM, LEAMwq was found to be a useful planning tool to illustrate in a quick and simple manner how future water quality is connected to decision-making on future land-use change.

This study investigates the applicability of temperature and precipitation data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for hydrological modelling of selected watersheds in northern Manitoba. For the specific region, it is found that NARR temperature and precipitation data are in much better agreement with observations than a popular global reanalysis data set. The hydrological model SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Processes) was set up and calibrated for three catchments (Burntwood, Taylor and Sapochi), using meteorological data from weather stations. When the calibrated models were run with temperature and precipitation data from NARR, runoff was underestimated by approximately 20%. The SLURP model was then recalibrated using the NARR temperature and precipitation data as input. This eliminated much of the bias and provided a goodnessof-fit that was only slightly inferior to simulations with observed weather data. This suggests that SLURP can be adequately calibrated with NARR data and used for modelling hydrological processes in northern Manitoba where weather stations are scarce.Résumé : La présente étude se penche sur l'applicabilité des données de température et de précipitations du North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) pour la modélisation hydrologique de certains bassins hydrographiques dans le Nord du Manitoba. Pour cette région précise, il a été constaté que les données de température et de précipitations du NARR concordent beaucoup mieux avec les observations qu'un ensemble de données de réanalyse globales populaires. Le modèle hydrologique SLURP, acronyme qui signifie « Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Processes », a été établi et étalonné pour trois bassins hydrographiques (Burntwood, Taylor et Sapochi) à l'aide de données tirées de stations météorologiques. Lorsque les modèles étalonnés ont été exécutés à l'aide des données de température et de précipitations du NARR, le ruissellement a été sous-estimé dans une proportion d'environ 20 %. Le modèle SLURP a ensuite été étalonné de nouveau à l'aide des données de température et de précipitations du NARR comme données d'entrée. Cela a permis d'éliminer une bonne partie du biais et a fourni une qualité de l'ajustement qui n'était que légèrement inférieure aux simulations faites à l'aide des données météorologiques observées. Le tout porte à croire que le modèle SLURP peut être étalonné de façon appropriée à l'aide des données du NARR et peut servir à la modélisation des processus hydrologiques dans le Nord du Manitoba, là où les stations météorologiques se font rares. 18Canadian Water Resources Journal/Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques

North Korea used to have abundant forest stocks but underwent substantial deforestation and degradation of forest in recent decades. This study examined morphological changes of forest cover in North Korea between the 1980s and 2000s. Land cover data based on Landsat TM imagery were obtained as images from the Republic of Korea's Ministry of Environment. The images were processed and used for the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis and network analysis. MSPA classified the forest cover into morphological classes such as core, islet, bridge, perforation, edge, loop, and branch. The network analysis identified individual networks of forest, each of which represents a patch of connected forest. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Forest cover sharply decreased between the 1990s and 2000s, particularly in western provinces; (2) Morphological classes indicating forest fragmentation such as islet, branch and edge consistently increased in their fraction to the total area between the 1980s and 2000s; (3) Islet, branch and edge also increased in number during the same period; (4) Forest networks shrank in size and increased in number. Overall, the results demonstrate that deforestation and fragmentation of forest occurred simultaneously in North Korea during the time.

Despite the importance of surface water in Manitoba, Canada, there has been relatively little investigation of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the province. This study examines streamflow characteristics in northern Manitoba basins (Taylor and Burntwood River basins) under climate scenarios generated by global climate models (GCM) from 2 agencies (the UK Hadley Centre and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis). The hydrological model SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Processes) was run with perturbed meteorological data based on the GCM simulations under 2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A2 and B2) for 2 future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2099). A method to incorporate the changed variability in future temperature and precipitation to the climate scenarios was also tested. All scenarios project wetter and warmer climates, and simulation results show that the mean annual runoff is likely to increase in every scenario. The largest seasonal increase occurs in late spring and the least in winter and summer. The daily flow exceeded by 80% of the total records is also projected to substantially increase, resulting in much fewer days with extreme low flow compared to the control period. Results indicate that the combination of a hydrological model with simple GCM-based scenarios can produce results comparable to those obtained from regional climate modelling. Explicit incorporation of changed variability in climate scenarios results in higher runoff than consideration of only changes in means. KEY WORDS: Climate change impact · Runoff · Statistical downscaling · SLURP · ManitobaResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 40: 89-102, 2009 mate models (GCMs) consistently project mean temperature increases of several degrees in northern Manitoba by the second half of the 21st century (Boer et al. 2000, Johns et al. 2003, it is imperative to assess the related effects on water resources.Few studies have addressed the effect of past or potential climate change on the hydrological cycle in Manitoba. This is in contrast to other areas in Canada where extensive studies have been undertaken, including British Columbia (see Merritt et al. 2006 for a review on B.C. studies), Ontario (e.g. Cunderlik & Simonovic 2005), and Quebec (e.g. Roy et al. 2001). Westmacott & Burn (1997) and Yulianti & Burn (1998) investigated links between climatic warming and hydrologic characteristics of river basins in the Canadian Prairies, including portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, by analysing past streamflow and temperature data. While they discovered a clear relationship between stream flow and temperature, they did not provide explicit projection of future climatic and hydrological characteristics. Sushama et al. (2006) investigated the Churchill and the Nelson River basins using 2 different versions of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (v3.6 and v3.7). Both of these rivers flow through Manitoba to Hudson Bay. The simulations ...