In this study, a coupled probabilistic framework is developed to assess wind risk on apartment buildings by using the convolution of wind hazard and fragility functions. In this framework, typhoon induced extreme wind is estimated by applying the developed Monte Carlo simulation model to the climatological data of typhoons affecting Korean peninsular from 1951 to 2013. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used to assess wind fragility function for 4 different damage states by comparing the probability distributions of the window system's resistance performance and wind load. Wind hazard and fragility functions are modeled by the Weibull and lognormal probability distributions based on simulated wind speeds and failure probabilities. The modeled functions are convoluted to obtain the wind risk for the different damage levels. The developed probabilistic framework clearly shows that wind risk are influenced by various important characteristics of terrain and apartment building such as location of building, exposure category, topographic condition, roof angle, height of building, etc. The risk model presented in this paper can be used as tools to predict economic loss estimation and to establish wind risk mitigation plan for the existing building inventory.
In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damage to vinyl greenhouses and livestock sheds among common agricultural facilities in South Korea. The fragility functions are derived through the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on the thickness distribution of volcanic ash observed in the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens in the USA and on agricultural facility codes and specifications in South Korea. In this study, the volcanic ash fragility functions evaluated represent the conditional probability of failure of vinyl greenhouses and livestock sheds over the full range of volcanic ash loads. For the evaluation, 4 types (i.e., automated, single span, tree crop, and double span types) of multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouses and 3 types (i.e., standard, coastal, and mountain types) of livestock sheds conventionally utilized in South Korea are considered. All volcanic ash fragility functions estimated in this study are fitted using parameters of the lognormal CDF (cumulative distribution function), and the obtained parameters are compiled into a database for use in the future. The volcanic ash fragility functions developed in this study are intended to be used to evaluate potential risks and losses from volcanic eruptions around the Korean Peninsula.
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