In this paper we are concerned with obtaining estimates for the error in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations based on the Launder-Sharma k − ε turbulence closure model, for a limited class of flows. In particular we search for estimates grounded in uncertainties in the space of model closure coefficients, for wall-bounded flows at a variety of favourable and adverse pressure gradients. In order to estimate the spread of closure coefficients which reproduces these flows accurately, we perform 13 separate Bayesian calibrations-each at a different pressure gradient-using measured boundary-layer velocity profiles, and a statistical model containing a multiplicative model inadequacy term in the solution space. The results are 13 joint posterior distributions over coefficients and hyper-parameters. To summarize this information we compute Highest Posterior-Density (HPD) intervals, and subsequently represent the total solution uncertainty with a probability-box (p-box). This p-box represents both parameter variability across flows, and epistemic uncertainty within each calibration. A prediction of a new boundary-layer flow is made with uncertainty bars generated from this uncertainty information, and the resulting error estimate is shown to be consistent with measurement data.

The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain an stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.