Abstract. A traditional metric used in hydrology to summarize model
performance is the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Increasingly an
alternative metric, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), is used instead. When
NSE is used, NSE = 0 corresponds to using the mean flow as a benchmark
predictor. The same reasoning is applied in various studies that use KGE as
a metric: negative KGE values are viewed as bad model performance, and only
positive values are seen as good model performance. Here we show that using
the mean flow as a predictor does not result in KGE = 0, but instead KGE =1-√2≈-0.41. Thus, KGE values greater than −0.41
indicate that a model improves upon the mean flow benchmark – even if the
model's KGE value is negative. NSE and KGE values cannot be directly
compared, because their relationship is non-unique and depends in part on
the coefficient of variation of the observed time series. Therefore,
modellers who use the KGE metric should not let their understanding of NSE
values guide them in interpreting KGE values and instead develop new
understanding based on the constitutive parts of the KGE metric and the
explicit use of benchmark values to compare KGE scores against. More
generally, a strong case can be made for moving away from ad hoc use of
aggregated efficiency metrics and towards a framework based on
purpose-dependent evaluation metrics and benchmarks that allows for more
robust model adequacy assessment.
This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Abstract. This paper presents the Modular Assessment of
Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT): a modular open-source toolbox
containing documentation and model code based on 46 existing conceptual
hydrologic models. The toolbox is developed in MATLAB and works with Octave.
MARRMoT models are based solely on traceable published material and model
documentation, not on already-existing computer code. Models are implemented
following several good practices of model development: the definition of model
equations (the mathematical model) is kept separate from the numerical
methods used to solve these equations (the numerical model) to generate
clean code that is easy to adjust and debug; the implicit Euler
time-stepping scheme is provided as the default option to numerically
approximate each model's ordinary differential equations in a more robust
way than (common) explicit schemes would; threshold equations are smoothed
to avoid discontinuities in the model's objective function space; and the
model equations are solved simultaneously, avoiding the physically unrealistic
sequential solving of fluxes. Generalized parameter ranges are provided to
assist with model inter-comparison studies. In addition to this paper and
its Supplement, a user manual is provided together with several
workflow scripts that show basic example applications of the toolbox. The
toolbox and user manual are available from https://github.com/wknoben/MARRMoT (last access: 30 May 2019; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3235664). Our main
scientific objective in developing this toolbox is to facilitate the
inter-comparison of conceptual hydrological model structures which are in
widespread use in order to ultimately reduce the uncertainty in model
structure selection.
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