Using a temporal-dynamic calibrated Ecosim food web model, we assess the effects of future changes on marine resources and ecosystem conditions of the Israeli Mediterranean continental shelf. This region has been intensely invaded by Indo-Pacific species. The region is exposed to extreme environmental conditions, is subjected to high rates of climate change and has experienced intense fishing pressure. We test the impacts of a new set of fishing regulations currently being implemented, a continued increase in sea temperatures following IPCC projections, and a continued increase in alien species biomass. We first investigate the impacts of the stressors separately, and then we combine them to evaluate their cumulative effects. Our results show overall potential future benefits of fishing effort reductions, and detrimental impacts of increasing sea temperature and increasing biomass of alien species. Cumulative scenarios suggest that the beneficial effects of fisheries reduction may be dampened by the impact of increasing sea temperature and alien species when acting together. These results illustrate the importance of including stressors other than fisheries, such as climate change and biological invasions, in an ecosystem-based management approach. These results support the need for reducing local and regional stressors, such as fishing and biological invasions, in order to promote resilience to sea warming.

The ecosystems of the Israeli Mediterranean coast have undergone significant ecological changes in recent decades, caused primarily by the introduction of alien species, fishing and the warming of the waters. Here we used a food-web model representing the continental shelf of the Israeli Mediterranean coast to explore the historical dynamics of the area considering the combined effect of alien species, fishing activities and changes in sea surface temperature and primary productivity. The food-web model was fitted to available time series of data from the early 1990s to 2010 using the temporal dynamic module of the Ecopath with Ecosim modeling approach. An important challenge was to model the numerous alien species inhabiting the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, one of the most invaded marine ecosystems of the world. Historical model simulations satisfactorily matched observed data, especially regarding alien groups. However, lack of data from the pelagic environment limited our ability to compare model output with historical observations. Trophic interactions, climate change and fishing were important factors explaining the historical dynamics of the ecosystem, which showed a degradation pattern over time. Results also highlighted an increasing proportion of alien species in biomass and catch over time, with important effects on the food web. This study represents an important step forward in understanding the changes that are occurring in the Israeli continental shelf ecosystem and the Levantine Sea.

Biological invasions threaten biodiversity in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, requiring substantial conservation and management efforts. To examine how the conservation planning literature addresses biological invasions and if planning in the marine environment could benefit from experiences in the freshwater and terrestrial systems, we conducted a global systematic review. Out of 1,149 scientific articles mentioning both "conservation planning" and "alien" or any of its alternative terms, 70 articles met our selection criteria. Most of the studies were related to the terrestrial environment, while only 10% focused on the marine environment. The main conservation targets were species (mostly vertebrates) rather than habitats or ecosystems. Apart from being mentioned, alien species were considered of concern for conservation in only 46% of the cases, while mitigation measures were proposed in only 13% of the cases. The vast majority of the studies (73%) ignored alien species in conservation planning even if their negative impacts were recognized. In 20% of the studies, highly invaded areas were avoided in the planning, while in 6% of the cases such areas were prioritized for conservation. In the latter case, two opposing approaches led to the selection of invaded areas: either alien and native biodiversity were treated equally in setting conservation targets, i.e., alien species were also considered as ecological Mačić et al. Biological Invasions in Conservation Planning features requiring protection, or more commonly invaded sites were prioritized for the implementation of management actions to control or eradicate invasive alien species. When the "avoid" approach was followed, in most of the cases highly impacted areas were either excluded or invasive alien species were included in the estimation of a cost function to be minimized. Most of the studies that followed a "protect" or "avoid" approach dealt with terrestrial or freshwater features but in most cases the followed approach could be transferred to the marine environment. Gaps and needs for further research are discussed and we propose an 11-step framework to account for biological invasions into the systematic conservation planning design.