From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population–weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3–70.0) to 42.0 µg/m3 (95% CI: 35.7–48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9–7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8–4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5–3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0–2.5) µg/m3 declines in the national PM2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM2.5-attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35–0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China’s recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.
The nationwide extent of surface ozone pollution in China and its comparison to the global ozone distribution have not been recognized because of the scarcity of Chinese monitoring sites before 2012. Here we address this issue by using the latest 5 year (2013–2017) surface ozone measurements from the Chinese monitoring network, combined with the recent Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) database for other industrialized regions such as Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the United States (JKEU). We use various human health and vegetation exposure metrics. We find that although the median ozone values are comparable between Chinese and JKEU cities, the magnitude and frequency of high-ozone events are much larger in China. The national warm-season (April–September) fourth highest daily maximum 8 h average (4MDA8) ozone level (86.0 ppb) and the number of days with MDA8 values of >70 ppb (NDGT70, 29.7 days) in China are 6.3–30% (range of regional mean differences) and 93–575% higher, respectively, than the JKEU regional averages. Health exposure metrics such as warm-season mean MDA8 and annual SOMO35 (sum of ozone means over 35 ppb) are 6.3–16 and 25–95% higher in China, respectively. We also find an increase in the surface ozone level over China in 2016 and 2017 relative to 2013 and 2014. Our results show that on the regional scale the exposure of humans and vegetation to ozone is greater in China than in other developed regions of the world with comprehensive ozone monitoring.
The profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and Europe. Europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and East Asia. The uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. The agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.
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