Drivers of improved PM _2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017

Abstract

From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population–weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3–70.0) to 42.0 µg/m3 (95% CI: 35.7–48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9–7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8–4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5–3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0–2.5) µg/m3 declines in the national PM2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM2.5-attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35–0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China’s recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.

Assessment of the short-term mortality effect of the national action plan on air pollution in Beijing, China

“…Compared to these temporary plans, the Action Plan is China's longest-term, largest-scale, and toughest clean air policy to date. The implementation of the Action Plan has made significant achievements in both air quality improvement and public health protection, which can be evidenced from the results of our study and several other studies [18,19,39,40].…”

Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID

“…Overall, then, the vital indirect effect of quarantine and lockdown of Italy and other European countries is a reduction in a short time of NO 2 and air pollution, improving the quality of environment that may reduce, associated with quarantine, physical distancing and other inter-related factors, the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. A study by Zhang et al (2019a) shows that with the implementation of air policy in China, from 2013 to 2017, fine particle (PM 2.5 ) concentrations have significant declined nationwide with health benefits. A possible danger in future is that after the quarantine and lockdown, the industrial activity of industrialized regions in North Italy has to resume at an intense pace of production and in next winter-fall season Journal Pre-proof 2020-2021 there may be again the environmental and meteorological conditions that can lead to other diffusion waves of viral infectivity of COVID-19 and/or other dangerous viruses.…”

Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics

“…The maps in figure 4 by ESA (2020) Overall, then, the indirect effect of quarantine and lockdown of Italy and other European countries has reduced in a short time NO2 and air pollution, improving the quality of environment that may reduce, associated with quarantine, physical distancing and other inter-related factors, the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. A study by Zhang et al (2019a) shows that with the implementation of air policy in China, from 2013 to 2017, fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations have significant declined nationwide with health benefits. Now, the danger is that after the quarantine and lockdown, the industrial activity of industrialized regions in Italy has to resume at an intense pace of production and in next winter-fall season 2020-2021 there may be again the environmental and meteorological conditions that can lead to diffusion of viral infectivity of COVID-19 and/or other dangerous viruses.…”