Motivation The results from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) on thousands of phenotypes provide an unprecedented opportunity to infer the causal effect of one phenotype (exposure) on another (outcome). Mendelian randomization (MR), an instrumental variable (IV) method, has been introduced for causal inference using GWAS data. Due to the polygenic architecture of complex traits/diseases and the ubiquity of pleiotropy, however, MR has many unique challenges compared to conventional IV methods. Results We propose a Bayesian weighted Mendelian randomization (BWMR) for causal inference to address these challenges. In our BWMR model, the uncertainty of weak effects owing to polygenicity has been taken into account and the violation of IV assumption due to pleiotropy has been addressed through outlier detection by Bayesian weighting. To make the causal inference based on BWMR computationally stable and efficient, we developed a variational expectation-maximization (VEM) algorithm. Moreover, we have also derived an exact closed-form formula to correct the posterior covariance which is often underestimated in variational inference. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we evaluated the performance of BWMR, demonstrating the advantage of BWMR over its competitors. Then we applied BWMR to make causal inference between 130 metabolites and 93 complex human traits, uncovering novel causal relationship between exposure and outcome traits. Availability and implementation The BWMR software is available at https://github.com/jiazhao97/BWMR. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a valuable tool for inferring causal relationships among a wide range of traits using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Existing summary-level MR methods often rely on strong assumptions, resulting in many false-positive findings. To relax MR assumptions, ongoing research has been primarily focused on accounting for confounding due to pleiotropy. Here, we show that sample structure is another major confounding factor, including population stratification, cryptic relatedness, and sample overlap. We propose a unified MR approach, MR-APSS, which 1) accounts for pleiotropy and sample structure simultaneously by leveraging genome-wide information; and 2) allows the inclusion of more genetic variants with moderate effects as instrument variables (IVs) to improve statistical power without inflating type I errors. We first evaluated MR-APSS using comprehensive simulations and negative controls and then applied MR-APSS to study the causal relationships among a collection of diverse complex traits. The results suggest that MR-APSS can better identify plausible causal relationships with high reliability. In particular, MR-APSS can perform well for highly polygenic traits, where the IV strengths tend to be relatively weak and existing summary-level MR methods for causal inference are vulnerable to confounding effects.

Motivation As increasing sample sizes from genome-wide association studies (GWASs), polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have shown great potential in personalized medicine with disease risk prediction, prevention and treatment. However, the PRS constructed using European samples becomes less accurate when it is applied to individuals from non-European populations. It is an urgent task to improve the accuracy of PRSs in under-represented populations, such as African populations and East Asian populations. Results In this paper, we propose a cross-population and cross-phenotype (XPXP) method for construction of PRSs in under-represented populations. XPXP can construct accurate PRSs by leveraging biobank-scale datasets in European populations and multiple GWASs of genetically correlated phenotypes. XPXP also allows to incorporate population-specific and phenotype-specific effects, and thus further improves the accuracy of PRS. Through comprehensive simulation studies and real data analysis, we demonstrated that our XPXP outperformed existing PRS approaches. We showed that the height PRSs constructed by XPXP achieved 9% and 18% improvement over the runner-up method in terms of predicted R2 in East Asian and African populations, respectively. We also showed that XPXP substantially improved the stratification ability in identifying individuals at high genetic risk of Type 2 Diabetes. Availability The XPXP software and all analysis code are available at github.com/YangLabHKUST/XPXP Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.