Women with a history of GDM are at an increased risk of developing diabetes. In women with a history of GDM in the DPP/Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study, both lifestyle and metformin were highly effective in reducing progression to diabetes during a 10-year follow-up period. Among women without a history of GDM, lifestyle but not metformin reduced progression to diabetes.

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Estimates of the medical costs associated with different stages of CKD are needed to assess the economic benefits of interventions that slow the progression of kidney disease. We combined laboratory data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with expenditure data from Medicare claims to estimate the Medicare program's annual costs that were attributable to CKD stage 1-4. The Medicare costs for persons who have stage 1 kidney disease were not significantly different from zero. Per person annual Medicare expenses attributable to CKD were $1700 for stage 2, $3500 for stage 3, and $12,700 for stage 4, adjusted to 2010 dollars. Our findings suggest that the medical costs attributable to CKD are substantial among Medicare beneficiaries, even during the early stages; moreover, costs increase as disease severity worsens. These cost estimates may facilitate the assessment of the net economic benefits of interventions that prevent or slow the progression of CKD.

BackgroundIn the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060.MethodsA dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection.ResultsThe projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases.ConclusionsBy 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.