Summary Background Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. Methods We investigated trends in atrial fibrillation incidence, prevalence, and risk factors, and in stroke and mortality following its onset in Framingham Heart Study participants (n=9511) from 1958 to 2007. To accommodate sex differences in atrial fibrillation risk factors and disease manifestations, sex-stratified analyses were performed. Findings During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), there were 1,544 new-onset atrial fibrillation cases (46.8% women). We observed about a fourfold increase in the age-adjusted prevalence and more than a tripling in age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation (prevalence 20.4 versus 96.2 per 1000 person-years in men; 13.7 versus 49.4 in women; incidence rates in first versus last decade 3.7 versus 13.4 per 1000 person-years in men; 2.5 versus 8.6 in women, ptrend<0.0001). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by ECG during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence increased (12.6versus 25.7 per 1000 person-years in men; 8.1 versus 11.8 in women, ptrend<0.0001). The age-adjusted incidence increased, but did not achieve statistical significance. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 73.5% decline in stroke and a 25.4% decline in mortality following atrial fibrillation onset (ptrend=0.0001, ptrend=0.003, respectively). Interpretation Our data suggest that observed trends of increased incidence of atrial fibrillation in the community were partially due to enhanced surveillance. Stroke occurrence and mortality following atrial fibrillation onset declined over the decades, and prevalence increased approximately fourfold. The hazards for atrial fibrillation risk factors remained fairly constant. Our data indicate a need for measures to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programs, and risk factor-specific prevention.

QT interval duration reflecting myocardial repolarization on the electrocardiogram is a heritable risk factor for sudden cardiac death and drug-induced arrhythmias. We conducted a meta-analysis of 3 genome-wide association studies in 13,685 individuals of European ancestry from the Framingham Heart Study, the Rotterdam Study and the Cardiovascular Health Study. We observed associations at P < 5×10−8 with variants in NOS1AP, KCNQ1, KCNE1, KCNH2 and SCN5A, known to be involved in myocardial repolarization and Mendelian Long QT Syndromes. Associations at five novel loci included 16q21 near NDRG4 and GINS3, 6q22 near PLN, 1p36 near RNF207, 16p13 near LITAF and 17q12 near LIG3 and RIFFL. Collectively, the 14 independent variants at these 10 loci explain 5.4–6.5% of variation in QT interval. Identifying the causal variants and defining their impact on myocardial repolarization may add incrementally to the prevention of sudden cardiac death and drug-induced arrhythmias.