Objective Population ageing, as a hot issue in global development, increases the burden of medical resources in society. This study aims to assess the current spatiotemporal evolution and interaction between population ageing and medical resources in mainland China; evaluate the matching level of medical resources to population ageing; and forecast future trends of ageing, medical resources, and the indicator of ageing-resources (IAR). Methods Data on ageing (EPR) and medical resources (NHI, NBHI, and NHTP) were obtained from China Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook (2011–2020). We employed spatial autocorrelation to examine the spatial–temporal distribution trends and analyzed the spatio-temporal interaction using a Bayesian spatio-temporal effect model. The IAR, an improved evaluation indicator, was used to measure the matching level of medical resources to population ageing with kernel density analysis for visualization. Finally, an ETS-DNN model was used to forecast the trends in population ageing, medical resources, and their matching level over the next decade. Results The study found that China's ageing population and medical resources are growing annually, yet distribution is uneven across districts. There is a spatio-temporal interaction effect between ageing and medical resources, with higher levels of both in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The IAR is relatively high in Northwest, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta, but showed a declining trend in North China and the Yangtze River Delta. The hybrid model (ETS-DNN) gained an R2 of 0.9719, and the predicted median IAR for 2030 (0.99) across 31 regions was higher than the median IAR for 2020 (0.93). Conclusion This study analyzes the relationship between population ageing and medical resources, revealing a spatio-temporal interaction between them. The IAR evaluation indicator highlights the need to address ageing population challenges and cultivate a competent health workforce. The ETS-DNN forecasts indicate higher concentrations of both medical resources and ageing populations in eastern China, emphasizing the need for region-specific ageing security systems and health service industries. The findings provide valuable policy insights for addressing a hyper-aged society in the future.

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BackgroundThe Shanghai COVID-19 epidemic is an important example of a local outbreak and of the implementation of normalized prevention and disease control strategies. The precise impact of public health interventions on epidemic prevention and control is unknown.MethodsWe collected information on COVID-19 patients reported in Shanghai, China, from January 30 to May 31, 2022. These newly added cases were classified as local confirmed cases, local asymptomatic infections, imported confirmed cases and imported asymptomatic infections. We used polynomial fitting correlation analysis and illustrated the time lag plot in the correlation analysis of local and imported cases. Analyzing the conversion of asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases, we proposed a new measure of the conversion rate (Cr). In the evolution of epidemic transmission and the analysis of intervention effects, we calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt). Additionally, we used simulated predictions of public health interventions in transmission, correlation, and conversion analyses.Results(1) The overall level of Rt in the first three stages was higher than the epidemic threshold. After the implementation of public health intervention measures in the third stage, Rt decreased rapidly, and the overall Rt level in the last three stages was lower than the epidemic threshold. The longer the public health interventions were delayed, the more cases that were expected and the later the epidemic was expected to end. (2) In the correlation analysis, the outbreak in Shanghai was characterized by double peaks. (3) In the conversion analysis, when the incubation period was short (3 or 7 days), the conversion rate fluctuated smoothly and did not reflect the effect of the intervention. When the incubation period was extended (10 and 14 days), the conversion rate fluctuated in each period, being higher in the first five stages and lower in the sixth stage.ConclusionEffective public health interventions helped slow the spread of COVID-19 in Shanghai, shorten the outbreak duration, and protect the healthcare system from stress. Our research can serve as a positive guideline for addressing infectious disease prevention and control in China and other countries and regions.