Background ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a fatal cardiovascular emergency requiring rapid reperfusion treatment. During the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, medical professionals need to strike a balance between providing timely treatment for STEMI patients and implementing infection control procedures to prevent nosocomial spread of COVID-19 among health care workers and other vulnerable cardiovascular patients. Objectives This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and China Chest Pain Center’s modified STEMI protocol on the treatment and prognosis of STEMI patients in China. Methods Based on the data of 28,189 STEMI patients admitted to 1,372 Chest Pain Centers in China between December 27, 2019 and February 20, 2020, the study analyzed how the COVID-19 outbreak and China Chest Pain Center’s modified STEMI protocol influenced the number of admitted STEMI cases, reperfusion strategy, key treatment time points, and in-hospital mortality and heart failure for STEMI patients. Results The COVID-19 outbreak reduced the number of STEMI cases reported to China Chest Pain Centers. Consistent with China Chest Pain Center’s modified STEMI protocol, the percentage of patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention declined while the percentage of patients undergoing thrombolysis increased. With an average delay of approximately 20 min for reperfusion therapy, the rate of in-hospital mortality and in-hospital heart failure increased during the outbreak, but the rate of in-hospital hemorrhage remained stable. Conclusions There were reductions in STEMI patients’ access to care, delays in treatment timelines, changes in reperfusion strategies, and an increase of in-hospital mortality and heart failure during the COVID-19 pandemic in China.

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This paper proposed a quarantine-susceptible-exposed-infectious-resistant (QSEIR) model which considers the unprecedented strict quarantine measures in almost the whole of China to resist the epidemic. We estimated model parameters from published information with the statistical method and stochastic simulation, we found the parameters that achieved the best simulation test result. The next stage involved quantitative predictions of future epidemic developments based on different containment strategies with the QSEIR model, focused on the sensitivity of the outcomes to different parameter choices in mainland China. The main results are as follows. If the strict quarantine measures are being retained, the peak value of confirmed cases would be in the range of [52438, 64090] and the peak date would be expected in the range February 7 to February 19, 2020. During March18-30, 2020, the epidemic would be controlled. The end date would be in the period from August 20 to September 1, 2020. With 80% probability, our prediction on the peak date was 4 days ahead of the real date, the prediction error of the peak value is 0.43%, both estimates are much closer to the observed values compared with published studies.The sensitive analysis indicated that the quarantine measures (or with vaccination) are the most All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. : medRxiv preprint 2 effective containment strategy to control the epidemic, followed by measures to increase the cured rate (like finding special medicine). The long-term simulation result and sensitive analysis in mainland China showed that the QSEIR model is stable and can be empirically validated. It is suggested that the QSEIR model can be applied to predict the development trend of the epidemic in other regions or countries in the world. In mainland China, the quarantine measures can't be relaxed before the end of March 2020. China can fully resume production with appropriate antiepidemic measures beginning in early April 2020. The results of this study also implied that other countries now facing the epidemic outbreaks should act more decisively and take in time quarantine measures though it may have negative short-term public and economic consequences.