No abstract

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) has been causing an outbreak of a new type of pneumonia globally, and repeated outbreaks have already appeared. Among the studies on the spread of the COVID-19, few studies have investigated the repeated outbreaks in stages, and the quantitative condition of a controllable spread has not been revealed. In this paper, a brief compartmental model is developed. The effective reproduction number (ERN) of the model is interpreted by the ratio of net newly infectious individuals to net isolation infections to assess the controllability of the spread of COVID-19. It is found that the value of the ERN at the inflection point of the pandemic is equal to one. The effectiveness of the quarantine, even the treatment, is parametrized in various stages with Gompertz functions to increase modeling accuracy. The impacts of the vaccinations are discussed by adding a vaccinated compartment. The results show that the sufficient vaccinations can make the inflection point appear early and significantly reduce subsequent increases in newly confirmed cases. The analysis of the ERNs of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, France, and Peru confirms that the condition of a repeated outbreak is to relax or lift the interventions related to isolation and quarantine interventions to a level where the ERN is greater than one.

At present, the global COVID-19 is still severe. More and more countries have experienced second or even third outbreaks. The epidemic is far from over until the vaccine is successfully developed and put on the market on a large scale. Inappropriate epidemic control strategies may bring catastrophic consequences. It is essential to maximize the epidemic restraining and to mitigate economic damage. However, the study on the optimal control strategy concerning both sides is rare, and no optimal model has been built. In this paper, the Susceptible-Infectious-Hospitalized-Recovered (SIHR) compartment model is expanded to simulate the epidemic’s spread concerning isolation rate. An economic model affected by epidemic isolation measures is established. The effective reproduction number and the eigenvalues at the equilibrium point are introduced as the indicators of controllability and stability of the model and verified the effectiveness of the SIHR model. Based on the Deep Q Network (DQN), one of the deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods, the blocking policy is studied to maximize the economic output under the premise of controlling the number of infections in different stages. The epidemic control strategies given by deep RL under different learning strategies are compared for different reward coefficients. The study demonstrates that optimal policies may differ in various countries depending on disease spread and anti-economic risk ability. The results show that the more economical strategy, the less economic loss in the short term, which can save economically fragile countries from economic crises. In the second or third outbreak stage, the earlier the government adopts the control strategy, the smaller the economic loss. We recommend the method of deep RL to specify a policy which can control the epidemic while making quarantine economically viable.