Monkeypox is a critical public health emergency with international implications. Few confirmed monkeypox cases had previously been reported outside endemic countries. However, since May 2022, the number of monkeypox infections has increased exponentially in non-endemic countries, especially in North America and Europe. The objective of this study was to develop optimal models for predicting daily cumulative confirmed monkeypox cases to help improve public health strategies. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing, long short-term memory (LSTM) and GM (1, 1) models were employed to fit the cumulative cases in the world, the USA, Spain, Germany, the UK and France. Performance was evaluated by minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), among other metrics. The ARIMA (2, 2, 1) model performed best on the global monkeypox dataset, with a MAPE value of 0.040, while ARIMA (2, 2, 3) performed the best on the USA and French datasets, with MAPE values of 0.164 and 0.043, respectively. The exponential smoothing model showed superior performance on the Spanish, German and UK datasets, with MAPE values of 0.043, 0.015 and 0.021, respectively. In conclusion, an appropriate model should be selected according to the local epidemic characteristics, which is crucial for monitoring the monkeypox epidemic. Monkeypox epidemics remain severe, especially in North America and Europe, e.g. in the USA and Spain. The development of a comprehensive, evidence-based scientific programme at all levels is critical to controlling the spread of monkeypox infection.

Background Talaromyces marneffei (formerly Penicillium marneffei) is an important thermally dimorphic fungus endemic which is characterized by one of the most frequent opportunistic infections in HIV/AIDS patients, mainly prevalent in Southeast Asia, southern China, and northeastern India. Cotrimoxazole(CTX) inhibits folic acid synthesis which is important for the survival of many bacteria, protozoa, and fungi, thereby commonly used to prevent several opportunistic infections among HIV/AIDS patients. In addition to preventing other HIV-associated opportunistic infections, CTX prophylaxis are considered to have the potential to prevent T.marneffei infection in HIV/AIDS patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the role and mechanism of cotrimoxazole resistance to T.marneffei fungus remains unclear.Methods Human THP-1 macrophages were used as cell model in vitro to explore the role and mechanism of cotrimoxazole resistance towards T.marneffei. Cell viability assay and drug sensitivity colony forming units (CFU) experiments were conducted to determine the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of cotrimoxazole inside and outside THP-1 macrophages respectively. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Elisa) was used to measure the concentration of Dihydropteroic acid synthetase (DHPS), Dihydrofolate synthetase (DHFS) and Dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) between T.marneffei adding TMP/SMX and without adding TMP/SMX group respectively. Real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR(qPCR) was performed to detect the mRNA expression levels in Dectin-1 mediated signaling pathway and downstream inflammatory cytokines including IL-6, IL-10, IL-23A, CXCL8 and TNF-α released by T.marneffei-infected macrophages between adding TMP/SMX and without adding TMP/SMX group respectively.Results Cotrimoxazole can inhibit the proliferation of T.marneffei within safe concentration inside and outside THP-1 macrophages. Drug susceptibility results showed the minimal inhibit concentration(MIC) of 1:5 TMP/SMX was ranging from 14/70 to 90/450μg/ml. The MIC of SMX was ranging from 100 to 360μg/ml, The MIC of TMP was ranging from 240 to 400μg/ml outside macrophages. The MIC of TMP/SMX was ranging from 36/180 to 68/340μg/ml. The MIC of SMX was ranging from 340 to 360μg/ml. The MIC of TMP was ranging from 320 to 400μg/ml inside macrophages. The synergistic interaction of 1:5 TMP/SMX was more effective in inhibiting T.marneffei than separate SMX and TMP. DHPS, DHFS and DHFR can be inhibited by cotrimoxazole within safe and effective concentration. Dectin-1 expression is increased following T.marneffei infection, leading to the increase of IL-6, IL-10, IL-23A and the decrease of CXCL8 and TNF-α. Conversely, cotrimoxazole decrease the levels of IL-6, IL-10, IL-23A and increase the levels of CXCL8 and TNF-α, thereby enhancing the intracellular killing-T.marneffei capacity of macrophages.Conclusions Our findings indicated that cotrimoxazole directly inhibited T.marneffei growth by blocking DHPS, DHFS and DHFR and indirectly inhibit T.marneffei growth by regulating the Dectin-1 signaling pathway, which may effectively interfere with the defense ability of the host against T.marneffei infection.

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Background HIV/AIDS has emerged as a nationwide epidemic and has taken the forefront position as the primary infectious killer of adults in China. The control and prevention of the disease have been hampered by a weak link in the form of heterosexual transmission. However, conventional intervention measures have demonstrated suboptimal efficacy in reducing the incidence of new HIV infections. In light of the current epidemiological characteristics, we have developed and executed an innovative intervention model known as the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the ‘CDC-Public Security Bureau-NGO’. The purpose of this research is to assess the impact of this model on the AIDS awareness, HIV infection rates, sexual behavior, and associated factors among female sex workers and elderly clients. Through the provision of robust evidence of the efficacy of this innovative model, we seek to advocate for its implementation in future interventions. Methods An 8-year consecutive cross-sectional survey, including a 4-year traditional intervention (2014-2017) and the 4-year ‘CDC-Public Security Bureau-NGO’ innovative intervention (2018-2021), was conducted to evaluate the effects of the new intervention. Compared to the traditional intervention, the ‘CDC-Public Security Bureau-NGO’ intervention achieved positive effects by decreasing risky behaviours. The GM(1, 1) model was performed to predict the proportion of HIV infection without implementing the innovative intervention in 2018–2021; P and C values were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results The most recent condom use rate among female sex workers and elderly clients has increased from 81.1% to 95.3% (P < 0.05), newly reported cases of HIV have decreased by 15.56% yearly and the HIV infection rate among middle-aged and elderly people has dropped by 19.91% yearly. The innovative intervention model has significantly reduced the HIV infection rates. Conclusions The ‘CDC-Public Security Bureau-NGO’ innovative intervention has achieved beneficial effects on HIV/AIDS prevention and control and provides a good reference for Guangxi, China.