Climate change is one of the most important global problems faced by the international community. It is generally believed that increasing the consumption of renewable energy is an effective measure to promote CO2 emissions reduction. Therefore, renewable energy consumption has become one of the best alternative strategies for sustainable development. Based on this, this paper employs the 3SLS model to conduct an empirical study on the relations among real output, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions of BRICS countries (except Russia) in 1999–2014. The empirical results support, for BRICS group, the complete tri-variate relationships (energy-output-emission nexus), and renewable energy had a significant positive impact on the real output, and vice versa. Besides, compared with other countries, Brazil also has the same tri-variate relationships as BRICS group. However, China has no relationship from real output to renewable energy consumption and from real output to CO2 emissions; India does not have the relationship from real output to renewable energy consumption and the bilateral relationship between real output and CO2 emissions; the relationship between variables in South Africa only occurs in the energy output chain. Finally, according to the estimation results of the simultaneous equation, the BRICs governments should consider the importance of human capital level and financial development when controlling the real output level and pollution. In addition, it should be noted that effective energy policies help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions without compromising real output.

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Based on textual data mining methods and global English articles, we develop an index for measuring the uncertainty of international trade rules and evaluating the role of trade rule uncertainty in the relationship between international trade and carbon emissions, via a mediating effect model. The empirical results show that: (1) Increasing trade volume in developing countries contributes to a rise in trade rule uncertainty, which in turn triggers trade conflicts and even trade wars between countries. (2) There are significant correlations between international trade and carbon emissions, and international trade impacts carbon emissions in both direct and indirect ways. (3) Trade rule uncertainty plays a mediating role in the relationship between international trade and carbon emissions. (4) Trade rule uncertainty significantly impacts carbon emissions in most developed and developing countries, but the impact is not significant in the USA. Our work not only contributes to extending measurements of uncertainty but also helps to quantify the impacts of trade rule uncertainty on carbon emissions.

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