No abstract

An in‐depth understanding of the relationships between ecosystem services (ESs) and socioeconomic (SE) development is an important prerequisite for the coordination and sustainable development of regional human–environmental management strategies. In this study, the coupling coordination model is employed to explore the synergistic and trade‐off relationships between ESs and SE factors.The results show that the ESs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are currently in a trade‐off stage. At the urban scale, the synergy between water production and other ecosystem functions is more than 20% higher than that of other systems. The proportion of trade‐offs between sediment retention and other ecosystem functions is also high, more than 40% higher than that of other systems. ESs are greatly affected by SE development; the expansion of cultivated land area has the largest negative effect on ESs, and rainfall has the largest negative effect on SE factors. The population has the largest positive effect on ESs, and carbon storage has the largest positive effect on SE factors. This study provides a research method by exploring the patterns of development, interaction, and impact in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, which can provide a basis for the SE development and ESs management of watershed economic zones.

Land use change is an important factor affecting the performance of ecosystem services (ESs). Therefore, understanding the impact of land use change on ESs is of great significance for promoting the coordination of regional human–land relationships. In this study, random forest and cellular automata were used to simulate and predict the characteristics of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and diversified land use evolution patterns were formed in combination with China's strategic development needs. The effects of habitat suitability on ESs were analyzed by using a multiscenario land use change model. The results demonstrated that the driving factors selected in this article had a good induction effect on the law of land use evolution, and the simulated land use change had high credibility. Under the mode of ecological protection and cultivated land protection, the expansion of construction land was greatly affected and was not conducive to social and economic development. Under the natural evolution mode, farmland was greatly encroached upon, and food security was greatly threatened. The regional coordination model had relative advantages, and all kinds of land use needs were met to a certain extent. The water production function of ESs was strong, but the carbon storage function was weak. The relationship between the habitat suitability index and ES changes under land use change revealed that there were significant differences in ES changes caused by ecological quality changes in mountainous and plain areas. This study provides a reference for promoting social and economic development and ecosystem integrity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–13. © 2023 SETAC