Global crises have created unprecedented challenges for communities and economies across the world, triggering turmoil in global finance and economy. This study adopts the dynamic conditional correlation multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC–MGARCH) model to explore contagion effects across financial markets in crisis. The main findings are as follows: (1) the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic intensified the connection between the Chinese and US stock markets in the short term; (2) the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) during the COVID-19 pandemic are higher than those during the 2008 financial crisis owing to the further opening of the Chinese capital market, and financial institutions’ investments in the European market are higher than those in the American markets; (3) a stepwise increase is observed in the dynamic conditional correlation between the returns on the S&P 500 Index and SSEC during and after the onset of a destructive crisis; and (4) a unidirectional contagion effect exists between the Chinese market and US market, and the Hong Kong stock market contributes to the risk spillover. Effective transmission channels of external negative shocks may be investors’ sentiments, financial institutions, and the RMB exchange rate in the stock markets. This study provides useful suggestions to authorities formulating financial regulations and investors diversifying risk investments.
This study uses the Gregory–Hansen cointegration method and the vector error correction model in the vector autoregression system to reveal how international trade contributes to economic sustainability. The Gregory–Hansen test for cointegration method reveals a permanent equilibrium relation among sustainably economic growth, exports, and imports and shows that exports facilitate GDP growth and accelerate improvements in the capability of imports in the long-run. The causality between GDP and exports is unidirectional, indicating that exports area determinant of sustainable economic growth. The bidirectional causality from imports to GDP also sheds light on the important influence of imports on economic sustainability; however, GDP growth also drives import growth. The interaction between imports and exports corresponds to their bidirectional causal relationship, which is indicative of imports contributing to export production and of export growth expanding the capacity for imports. This finding indicates that imports are both exogenous and endogenous factors for exports.
The COVID-19 pandemic created unprecedented challenges for communities and economies around the world. Based on 13 leading global stock indices, the event study method is adopted in this research to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the stock market indices in the short term. Regression results show that the global stock markets performed poorly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of the event study imply that the stock markets reacted rapidly and negatively to the COVID-19 pandemic when lockdown restrictions were announced to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. The Asian stock indices experienced more negative abnormal earnings than the stock indices of the countries outside Asia. Moreover, investor sentiments act as a wedge between financial investment decisions, returns, and fear of uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Furthermore, the panic experienced by investors may be an effective transmission channel through which the COVID-19 outbreak affects the returns on the stock market indices.
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