No abstract

In the context of climate change where natural disasters are frequent, assessing disaster risk can provide great help for relevant risk decisions. Based on the loss expectation theory, this paper proposes a method for quantitatively assessing typhoon disaster risk. In particular, the probability of typhoon occurrence is calculated by fitting the best structure function of the samples to the joint distribution of wave height, water increase, and wind speed. The loss expectation is then expressed as the product of the typhoon occurrence probability and the aversion utility loss, which is used to quantify the loss result of a typhoon disaster. In addition, a risk level map is created using the theory of aversion utility, with the direct economic loss rate and the proportion of disaster-affected population as indicators. The calculation results show that the absolute loss value considering the aversion utility is slightly higher than the product of the probability and the loss value, indicating that the new model reflects the social group's aversion to typhoon disaster risk. The diagram of risk level zoning showed that, excluding typhoon No.1306 Rumbia, the risk level assessments of the remaining typhoons, in accordance with affected population and direct economic loss, were basically consistent. This evaluation model, the outcomes of which can serve as a foundation and reference for certain risk assessment and decision-making, has some feasibility and practicability.