Subtropical forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. In order to understand the effects of climate factors on soil carbon in subtropical forest ecosystems, it is necessary to make full use of carbon sequestration potential. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil alkali-hydrolyzed nitrogen (SAN) were tested in 255 plots of subtropical forests in Zhejiang Province, and their forest reserves from 2020 in Zhejiang Province were compared with those from 2010. The results showed that SOC content significantly increased, but SAN content decreased over those ten years. Combined with random forest (RF) and correlation analysis, the contribution of different climate factors (temperature, precipitation, etc.) to soil carbon storage was analyzed, and the main driving factors were evaluated. The RF model explained that winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) were the most dominant drivers to the 0–10 cm and 10–30 cm increases in SOC. There was a significant positive correlation between precipitation and SOC accumulation (0–30 cm) during winter and spring. The minimum temperatures in summer (June to August) and autumn (September to November) were negatively correlated with SOC accumulation (0–30 cm). Increasing the precipitation or irrigation (cloud seeding) in winter could improve the carbon sequestration capacity of subtropical forest soils. This study provides a new perspective on the sensitivity and potential response of the carbon cycle to climate change in subtropical forest ecosystems.

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