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1. The Yangtze floodplain (SE China) is characterized by a number of large shallow lakes, many of which have undergone eutrophication due to the intensification of agriculture and urban growth over recent decades. As monitoring data are limited and in order to determine lake baseline nutrient concentrations, 49 lakes were sampled, covering a total phosphorus (TP) gradient (c. 30-550 lg L )1 ) to develop a diatom-based inference model. 2. There are three dominant diatom assemblages in these shallow lakes with a marked change in assemblage structure near the boundary between eutrophic and hypereutrophic nutrient levels (as indicated by their TP value). Canonical correspondence analysis indicated that TP was the most important and significant variable in explaining the diatom distributions, independently accounting for 9.5% variance of diatoms. 3. Forty-three lakes were used to generate a transfer function using weighted averaging (WA) with inverse deshrinking. This model had low predictive error (root mean squared error of prediction; RMSEP jack = 0.12) and a high coefficient of prediction (R 2 jack = 0.82), comparable with regional TP models elsewhere. The good performance of this TP model may reflect the low abundance of benthic diatom species which are commonly regarded as the main error source in European shallow lake WA models. 4. The WA model was used to reconstruct the past-TP concentrations for Taibai Lake, a shallow hypereutrophic lake in Hubei province. The results showed that TP concentration varied slightly (43-62 lg L )1 ) prior to the 1920s, indicating an eutrophic state since the 1800s. A period of sustained eutrophication occurred after 1950, because of the development of agriculture, reflecting by maximum values of Aulacoseira alpigena and increased abundance of Cyclotella meneghiniana, C. atomus and Cyclostephanos dubius. The steep increase in nutrient concentration after 1970 was related to the overuse of chemical fertilizer and fish farming in the catchment. 5. The shift in fossil diatoms from epiphytic to planktonic forms in the lake sediment core during 1950-70 provides useful information on the transformation from macrophytedominated to alga-dominated states. It is plausible that the TP concentration of 80-110 lg L )1 observed in this study is the critical range for switching between the two stable states in the lake. 1273 6. The regional diatom-TP model developed in this study allows, therefore, the possibility of reconstructing historical background nutrient concentrations in lakes. It will provide an indication of the onset and development of eutrophication at any site. This is particularly important for the many lakes in the Yangtze floodplain where information about historical changes in water quality is lacking.

Lake sediments constitute natural archives of past environmental changes. Historically, research has focused mainly on generating regional climate records, but records of human impacts caused by land use and exploitation of freshwater resources are now attracting scientific and management interests. Long-term environmental records are useful to establish ecosystem reference conditions, enabling comparisons with current environments and potentially allowing future trajectories to be more tightly constrained. Here we review the timing and onset of human disturbance in and around inland water ecosystems as revealed through sedimentary archives from around the world. Palaeolimnology provides access to a wealth of information reflecting early human activities and their corresponding aquatic ecological shifts. First human impacts on aquatic systems and their watersheds are highly variable in time and space. Landscape disturbance often constitutes the first anthropogenic signal in palaeolimnological records. While the effects of humans at the landscape level are relatively easily demonstrated, the earliest signals of humaninduced changes in the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems need very careful investigation using multiple proxies. Additional studies will improve our understanding of linkages between human settlements, their exploitation of land and water resources, and the downstream effects on continental waters.

Summary 1. A long‐term monitoring programme on phytoplankton and physicochemical characteristics of Esthwaite Water (England) that started in 1945 provides a rare opportunity to understand the effects of climate and nutrients on a lake ecosystem. 2. Monitoring records show that the lake experienced nutrient enrichment from the early 1970s, particularly after 1975, associated with inputs from a local sewage treatment plant, resulting in marked increases in concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP). Climatic variables, such as air temperature (AirT) and rainfall, exhibit high variability with increasing trends after 1975. 3. Diatom analyses of an integrated 210Pb‐dated lake sediment core from Esthwaite Water, covering the period from 1945 to 2004, showed that fossil diatoms exhibited distinct compositional change in response to nutrient enrichment. 4. Redundancy analysis (RDA) based on diatom and environmental data sets over the past 60 years showed that the most important variables explaining diatom species composition were winter concentrations of SRP, followed by AirT, independently explaining 22% and 8% of the diatom variance, respectively. 5. Additive models showed that winter SRP was the most important factor controlling the diatom assemblages for the whole monitoring period. AirT had little effect on the diatom assemblages when nutrient levels were low prior to 1975. With the increase in nutrient availability during the eutrophication phase after 1975, climate became more important in regulating the diatom community, although SRP was still the major controlling factor. 6. The relative effects of climate and nutrients on diatom communities vary depending on the timescale. RDA and additive model revealed that climate contributed little to diatom dynamics at an annual or decadal scale. 7. The combination of monitoring and palaeolimnological records employed here offers the opportunity to explore how nutrients and climate have affected a lake ecosystem over a range of timescales. This dual approach can potentially be extended to much longer timescales (e.g. centuries), where long‐term, reliable observational records exist.