This article presents the construction and analysis of a long-run GDP growth model, including sample results, its sensitivity to parameter choices, and explanations of the concepts underpinning it. It is designed to be flexible so that scholars can use it with their own assumptions and parameter choices to customize results. The model estimates GDP as a function of labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivity (TFP) for 185 countries through 2050 under alternate scenarios. It provides rough estimates for real exchange rates, poverty indices, median and percentile incomes and consumption levels, and the populations of the lower, middle, and upper income classes. The model also provides additional evidence for the TFP convergence phenomenon and the effect of the state failure on TFP growth. It can further be used to model stocks, accessibility, and investment requirements for 10 infrastructure sectors. The model can yield counterfactual estimates and actual and roughly estimated comparable historical data for most of the projected series, provided in identical units. For 126 countries, such series (e.g., TFP) are provided back through 1956, and for some even earlier.

For Asia to realize the Asian Century in 2050 and reach per capita income levels similar to Europe today, its fast-growing converging economies must sustain their growth momentum. The slower growing countries must accelerate their growth to achieve convergence status during this period. The underlying requirement for both groups is continued rapid improvement in total factor productivity (TFP). Although it may sound ambitious and though it is definitely not preordained, Asia can reach this dream if its economies strive for excellence in the areas of productivity and innovation, while learning from the best practice in the region and beyond. This article addresses the TFP level and performance of Asian economies, the salient underlying factors, and the strategies that Asian economies must pursue to make further improvement.

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