Background: Hong Kong, a Special Administrative Region of China, recorded its first confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on 23 January 2020. We reviewed the case epidemiology and the various public health measures implemented from January to May 2020. Methods: The epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the cases recorded in different phases of the epidemic were described and compared, and the effectiveness of the public health measures implemented were reviewed using the changes in the daily number of confirmed cases and the interval from symptom onset to hospital admission. Results: Between January and May 2020, 1084 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported, about 70% of which had a history of travel during the incubation period. The case fatality ratio was 0.4%. The local epidemic progressed through four phases: (1) preparedness and imported infection from mainland China, (2) local transmission, (3) imported infection from overseas countries associated with local transmission, and (4) controlled imported infection with limited local transmission, with an eventual reduction of the daily case number and minimization of the onset-to-admission interval. Various public health measures, including enhanced surveillance, border control, and social distancing, were introduced in phases in response to the prevailing local and global situations. Discussion: The overall containment strategy in Hong Kong led to a stabilization of the number of cases and the absence of a community-wide outbreak during the 4.5 m after the first case was reported. This strategy of containment might serve as an example for future planning of preparedness and response against novel infectious agents.
To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks from international travellers, many countries currently use a combination of up to 14 days of self-quarantine on arrival and testing for active infection. We used a simulation model of air travellers arriving to the UK from the EU or the USA and the timing of their stages of infection to evaluate the ability of these strategies to reduce the risk of seeding community transmission. We find that a quarantine period of 8 days on arrival with a PCR test on day 7 (with a 1-day delay for test results) can reduce the number of infectious arrivals released into the community by a median 94% compared to a no quarantine, no test scenario. This reduction is similar to that achieved by a 14-day quarantine period (median 99% reduction). Shorter quarantine periods still can prevent a substantial amount of transmission; all strategies in which travellers spend at least 5 days (the mean incubation period) in quarantine and have at least one negative test before release are highly effective (e.g. a test on day 5 with release on day 6 results in a median 88% reduction in transmission potential). Without intervention, the current high prevalence in the US (40 per 10,000) results in a higher expected number of infectious arrivals per week (up to 23) compared to the EU (up to 12), despite an estimated 8 times lower volume of travel in July 2020. Requiring a 14-day quarantine period likely results in less than 1 infectious traveller each entering the UK per week from the EU and the USA (97.5th percentile). We also find that on arrival the transmission risk is highest from pre-symptomatic travellers; quarantine policies will shift this risk increasingly towards asymptomatic infections if eventually-symptomatic individuals self-isolate after the onset of symptoms. As passenger numbers recover, strategies to reduce the risk of re-introduction should be evaluated in the context of domestic SARS-CoV-2 incidence, preparedness to manage new outbreaks, and the economic and psychological impacts of quarantine.
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