This study assesses the economy-wide impacts of cutting CO2 emissions on the Brazilian economy. It finds that in 2040, the business-as-usual CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes would be almost three times as high as those in 2010 and would account for more than half of total national CO2 emissions. The current policy aims to reduce deforestation by 70 percent by 2017 and lower emissions intensity of the overall economy by 36-39 percent by 2020. If the policy were implemented as planned and continued to 2040, there would be no need to cut CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes until 2035, as emissions reduction through controlling deforestation would be enough to meet the voluntary carbon mitigation target of Brazil. The study also finds that using the carbon tax revenue to subsidize wind power can effectively increase the country's wind power output if that is the policy priority. Further, it finds evidence supporting the double dividend hypothesis, i.e., using revenue from a hypothetical carbon tax to finance a cut in labor income tax can significantly lower the GDP impacts of the carbon tax.

Change combines cutting-edge scientific research with independent policy analysis to provide a solid foundation for the public and private decisions needed to mitigate and adapt to unavoidable global environmental changes. Being data-driven, the Joint Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models to produce quantitative analysis and predictions of the risks of climate change and the challenges of limiting human influence on the environmentessential knowledge for the international dialogue toward a global response to climate change.To this end, the Joint Program brings together an interdisciplinary group from two established MIT research centers: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers-along with collaborators from the Marine Biology Laboratory (MBL) at Woods Hole and short-and long-term visitors-provide the united vision needed to solve global challenges.At the heart of much of the program's work lies MIT's Integrated Global System Model. Through this integrated model, the program seeks to discover new interactions among natural and human climate system components; objectively assess uncertainty in economic and climate projections; critically and quantitatively analyze environmental management and policy proposals; understand complex connections among the many forces that will shape our future; and improve methods to model, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic impacts.This reprint is intended to communicate research results and improve public understanding of global environment and energy challenges, thereby contributing to informed debate about climate change and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Given uncertainty in long-term carbon reduction goals, how much non-carbon generation should be developed in the near-term? This research investigates the optimal balance between the risk of overinvesting in non-carbon sources that are ultimately not needed and the risk of underinvesting in non-carbon sources and subsequently needing to reduce carbon emissions dramatically. We employ a novel framework that incorporates a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. into a two-stage stochastic approximate dynamic program (ADP) focused on decisions in the electric power sector. We solve the model using an ADP algorithm that is computationally tractable while exploring the decisions and sampling the uncertain carbon limits from continuous distributions.The results of the model demonstrate that an optimal hedge is in the direction of more non-carbon investment in the near-term, in the range of 20-30% of new generation. We also demonstrate that the optimal share of non-carbon generation is increasing in the variance of the uncertainty about the long-term carbon targets, and that with greater uncertainty in the future policy regime, a balanced portfolio of non-carbon, natural gas, and coal generation is desirable.