Pandemic infectious diseases have accompanied humans since their origins1, and have shaped the form of civilizations2. Of these, plague is possibly historically the most dramatic. We reconstructed historical patterns of plague transmission through sequence variation in 17 complete genome sequences and 933 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within a global collection of 286 Yersinia pestis isolates. Y. pestis evolved in or near China, and has been transmitted via multiple epidemics that followed various routes, probably including transmissions to West Asia via the Silk Road and to Africa by Chinese marine voyages. In 1894, Y. pestis spread to India and radiated to diverse parts of the globe, leading to country-specific lineages that can be traced by lineage-specific SNPs. All 626 current isolates from the U.S.A. reflect one radiation and 82 isolates from Madagascar represent a second. Subsequent local microevolution of Y. pestis is marked by sequential, geographically-specific SNPs.

The genetic diversity of Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of plague, is extremely limited because of its recent origin coupled with a slow clock rate. Here we identified 2,326 SNPs from 133 genomes of Y. pestis strains that were isolated in China and elsewhere. These SNPs define the genealogy of Y. pestis since its most recent common ancestor. All but 28 of these SNPs represented mutations that happened only once within the genealogy, and they were distributed essentially at random among individual genes. Only seven genes contained a significant excess of nonsynonymous SNP, suggesting that the fixation of SNPs mainly arises via neutral processes, such as genetic drift, rather than Darwinian selection. However, the rate of fixation varies dramatically over the genealogy: the number of SNPs accumulated by different lineages was highly variable and the genealogy contains multiple polytomies, one of which resulted in four branches near the time of the Black Death. We suggest that demographic changes can affect the speed of evolution in epidemic pathogens even in the absence of natural selection, and hypothesize that neutral SNPs are fixed rapidly during intermittent epidemics and outbreaks.infectious disease | molecular clock | phylogenomics | NGS | molecular epidemiology