No abstract

The crude oil industry has been developed in recent decades due to the uses of this product, as well as its derivatives. One of the worst consequences phenomena that can occur in the process industry is the called domino effect. The domino effect or cascade effect occurs when an initiating event, such as a pool of fire or a vapor cloud explosion, causes a new number of accidents. Moreover, due to the importance of avoiding this phenomenon, the European Commission considers the domino effect analysis as mandatory for industrial facilities. There are methodologies in the specialized literature focused on quantifying the existing risks in the storage and processing of hydrocarbons. However, there is a tendency to develop new procedures that increase the risk perception of these accidents. In addition, it is necessary to develop a method that allows visualizing clearly and concisely the dangerous potential of fire and explosion accidents for the occurrence of the domino effect. Precisely, this research aims to predict the dangerous potential of fire and explosion accidents for the occurrence of the domino effect. For this purpose, a methodology consisting of three fundamental stages is developed. Finally, hydrocarbon storage and processing area is selected to apply the proposed methodology. Overall, the development of graphs that summarize information and show the dangerous potential regarding the escalation of fire and explosion accidents is vital in risk analysis. For the case study, the effectiveness of the same was demonstrated, since after its realization it was possible to increase the risk awareness of workers, technicians, and managers of the area taken as a case study.

Accidents in the processing and storage of hydrocarbons can cause severe damage to people, not only within the facility but also in nearby places. In those cases, the occurrence of a major accident is considered. Moreover, there are many studies on how to determine the impact on people of these types of events. However, there is a real need to establish a methodology that integrates risk analysis techniques with other artificial intelligence ones and, in this way, to include the likelihood of the domino effect. For this reason, this research aims to determine the individual risk due to the domino effect of toxic, fire, and explosion accidents that can occur in a hydrocarbon processing area. For this purpose, a logical sequence of analysis of eight fundamental stages was made. In addition, the Bayesian and Petri networks are developed to determine the joint probability of the domino effect at different levels and the damages caused by toxicity, respectively. Finally, the individual risk is obtained, expressed using isorisk maps. As main results, these maps confirm that three deaths can occur up to 200 meters, while 250 will cause approximately four in just 10 years, values that decrease to 500 meters and are considered high according to specialized literature. Hence, this methodology is vital to quantify the possible damages of toxic accidents, fires, and explosions on people in the hydrocarbon processing industry.