No abstract

Changes in human-dominated spatial patterns of land use are the main driving factors of water quality evolution in watersheds, and the quantitative impact of land use changes on water quality is currently a focus of lake ecology research. Using the Junshan Lake Basin as a study area, this paper quantitatively analyzes the response relationships between the water quality parameters, land use, and socio-economic factors in the study area from 2005 to 2019 and predicts the water quality in 2035 based on land and space planning scenarios. The results show the following. (1) The land use structure of the Junshan Lake Basin has changed significantly over the last 15 years. The basic trend is an increase in settlement and wetland areas in the basin and a decrease in water, cropland, forest, and grassland areas. (2) Settlement areas play the role of a ‘source’ for the total phosphorus (TP) and ammonium-nitrogen (NH3-N) pollution load, and cropland areas play the role of a ‘sink’ for the TP, NH3-N, and chemical oxygen demand (CODMn) pollution load. (3) The main land use type in the Junshan Lake Basin is cropland, which accounts for more than 40% of the total, and the water quality in the lake is affected not only by non-point source pollution but also by the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total population, and per capita disposable income. According to the water quality prediction and analysis, the concentrations of TN and TP in Junshan Lake will meet the Class IV water quality standard in 2035, and the concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and CODMn will meet the Class II standard. This study is significant for the management and control of the water environment in the Junshan Lake Basin.