The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of clearing houses. The two main issues in systemic risk measurement are the computation of an overall reserve level and its allocation to the different components according to their systemic relevance. We develop here a pragmatic approach to systemic risk measurement and allocation based on multivariate shortfall risk measures, where acceptable allocations are first computed and then aggregated so as to minimize costs. We analyze the sensitivity of the risk allocations to various factors and highlight its relevance as an indicator of systemic risk. In particular, we study the interplay between the loss function and the dependence structure of the components. Moreover, we address the computational aspects of risk allocation. Finally, we apply this methodology to the allocation of the default fund of a CCP on real data.
We develop an XVA (costs) analysis of the clearance framework for a member of a clearing house. The systemic consequences of the default of the clearing house itself are outside the scope of such an XVA analysis. Hence the clearing house is assumed default-free. We introduce a dynamic framework that incorporates the sequence of cash flows involved in the waterfall of resources of a clearing house. The overall XVA cost for a member, dubbed CCVA for central clearing valuation adjustment, is decomposed into CVA, MVA and KVA components. The CVA is the cost for a member of its losses on the default fund due to the defaults of other members. The MVA is the cost of funding initial margin. The KVA mainly consists in the cost of the capital at risk that the member provides to the CCP through its default fund contribution. In the end the structure of the XVA equations for bilateral and cleared portfolios is similar, but the data of the equations are of course not the same, reflecting the different financial network structures. The numerical experiments emphasize the multilateral netting benefit of central clearing. However, it is known that this multilateral netting comes at the expense of a loss of netting across asset classes. If we compensate the first order multilateral netting effect by a suitable scaling factor accounting for the loss of netting across asset classes, then the bilateral and centrally cleared XVA numbers become comparable. The second more explanatory factor of the numerical results is the credit risk of the members and the ensuing MVA, especially in the bilateral setup, where even more initial margin is required.
Based on an XVA analysis of centrally cleared derivative portfolios, we consider two capital and funding issues pertaining to the efficiency of the design of central counterparties (CCPs). First, we consider an organization of a clearing framework, whereby a CCP would also play the role of a centralized XVA calculator and management center. The default fund contributions would become pure capital at risk of the clearing members, remunerated as such at some hurdle rate, i.e. return-on-equity. Moreover, we challenge the current default fund Cover 2 EMIR sizing rule with a broader risk based approach, relying on a suitable notion of economic capital of a CCP. Second, we compare the margin valuation adjustments (MVAs) resulting from two different initial margin raising strategies. The first one is unsecured borrowing by the clearing member. As an alternative, the clearing member delegates the posting of its initial margin to a so-called specialist lender, which, in case of default of the clearing member, receives back from the CCP the portion of IM unused to cover losses. The alternative strategy results in a significant MVA compression. A numerical case study shows that the volatility swings of the IM funding expenses can even be the main contributor to an economic capital based default fund of a CCP. This is an illustration of the transfer of counterparty risk into liquidity risk triggered by extensive collateralization.
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