ObjectiveTo measure the association of China’s universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics.DesignNational, descriptive before-and-after comparative study.SettingEvery county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China.ParticipantsBirths included in two national databases: 67 786 749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31 786 279 deliveries from individual level delivery information records between January 2015 and December 2017.Main outcome measuresMonthly mean number of births and mean proportion of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over, preterm deliveries, and caesarean deliveries.ResultsThe study had two phases: the baseline period (up to and including June 2016, nine months after the policy announcement) and the effective period (from July 2016 to December 2017). The estimated number of additional births attributable to the new policy between July 2016 and December 2017 was 5.40 million (95% confidence interval 4.34 to 6.46). The monthly mean percentage of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over increased by 9.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 11.7) and 5.8 percentage points (5.2 to 6.4), respectively. This increase in older mothers, however, was not associated with a concurrent increase in the overall rate of preterm birth. The monthly mean caesarean delivery rate among multiparous mothers increased by 1.2 percentage points (0.8 to 1.6) from 39.7% to 40.9%, and decreased by 3.0 percentage points (−3.5 to −2.5) among nulliparous mothers from 39.6% to 36.6%.ConclusionsSince its announcement in October 2015, the universal two child policy has been associated with a rise in births in China and with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. No evidence of concurrent worsening outcomes (that is, premature births) was seen.

SummaryBackgroundChina is one of the few Countdown countries to have achieved Millennium Development Goal 5 (75% reduction in maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015). We aimed to examine the health systems and contextual factors that might have contributed to the substantial decline in maternal mortality between 1997 and 2014. We chose to focus on western China because poverty, ethnic diversity, and geographical access represent particular challenges to ensuring universal access to maternal care in the region.MethodsIn this systematic assessment, we used data from national census reports, National Statistical Yearbooks, the National Maternal and Child Health Routine Reporting System, the China National Health Accounts report, and National Health Statistical Yearbooks to describe changes in policies, health financing, health workforce, health infrastructure, coverage of maternal care, and maternal mortality by region between 1997 and 2014. We used a multivariate linear regression model to examine which contextual and health systems factors contributed to the regional variation in maternal mortality ratio in the same period. Using data from a cross-sectional survey in 2011, we also examined equity in access to maternity care in 42 poor counties in western China.FindingsMaternal mortality declined by 8·9% per year between 1997 and 2014 (geometric mean ratio for each year 0·91, 95% CI 0·91–0·92). After adjusting for GDP per capita, length of highways, female illiteracy, the number of licensed doctors per 1000 population, and the proportion of ethnic minorities, the maternal mortality ratio was 118% higher in the western region (2·18, 1·44–3·28) and 41% higher in the central region (1·41, 0·99–2·01) than in the eastern region. In the rural western region, the proportion of births in health facilities rose from 41·9% in 1997 to 98·4% in 2014. Underpinning such progress was the Government's strong commitment to long-term strategies to ensure access to delivery care in health facilities—eg, professionalisation of maternity care in large hospitals, effective referral systems for women medically or socially at high risk, and financial subsidies for antenatal and delivery care. However, in the poor western counties, substantial disparity by education level of the mother existed in access to health facility births (44% of illiterate women vs 100% of those with college or higher education), antenatal care (17% vs 69%) had at least four visits), and caesarean section (8% vs 44%).InterpretationDespite remarkable progress in maternal survival in China, substantial disparities remain, especially for the poor, less educated, and ethnic minority groups in remote areas in western China. Whether China's highly medicalised model of maternity care will be an answer for these populations is uncertain. A strategy modelled after China's immunisation programme, whereby care is provided close to the women's homes, might need to be explored, with township hospitals taking a more prominent role.FundingGovernment of Canada, UNICEF, and...

Summary Background In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012. Methods We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties. Findings In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4·4%. Interpretation The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8·8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates. Funding National “Twelfth Five-Year” Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People’s Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in U...