No abstract

We develop a Loan Portfolio Risk (LPR) variable that measures timevarying volatility in default risk for a portfolio of bank loans. An Equity-to-LPR ratio (ELPR) is incrementally important in predicting bank failure up to five years in advance, even after controlling for all the CAMELS variables. Publicly-listed banks with higher ELPR have lower market implied costs-of-capital. ELPR also strongly predicts cross-sectional stock returns under stress conditions. During the financial crisis (7/2007-6/2011), a cash-neutral strategy that longs high-ELPR and shorts low-ELPR banks yields a monthly alpha of 3.3% to 4.2%. We conclude LPR captures key aspects of bank risk missed by a risk-weighted-asset approach.