SUMMARY Although most cervical human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infections become undetectable within 1–2 years, persistent HPV16 causes half of all cervical cancers. We used a novel HPV whole-genome sequencing technique to evaluate an exceptionally large collection of 5,570 HPV16-infected case-control samples to determine whether viral genetic variation influences risk of cervical precancer and cancer. We observed thousands of unique HPV16 genomes; very few women shared the identical HPV16 sequence, which should stimulate a careful re-evaluation of the clinical implications of HPV mutation rates, transmission, clearance, and persistence. In case-control analyses, HPV16 in the controls had significantly more amino acid changing variants throughout the genome. Strikingly, E7 was devoid of variants in precancers/cancers compared to higher levels in the controls; we confirmed this in cancers from around the world. Strict conservation of the 98 amino acids of E7, which disrupts Rb function, is critical for HPV16 carcinogenesis, presenting a highly specific target for etiologic and therapeutic research.

Specific HPV16 variant sublineages strongly influence risk of histologic types of precancer and cancer, and viral genetic variation may help explain its unique carcinogenic properties.

HPV16 causes half of cervical cancers worldwide; for unknown reasons, most infections resolve within two years. Here, we analyze the viral genomes of 5,328 HPV16-positive case-control samples to investigate mutational signatures and the role of human APOBEC3-induced mutations in viral clearance and cervical carcinogenesis. We identify four de novo mutational signatures, one of which matches the COSMIC APOBEC-associated signature 2. The viral genomes of the precancer/cancer cases are less likely to contain within-host somatic HPV16 APOBEC3-induced mutations (Fisher’s exact test, P = 6.2 x 10−14), and have a 30% lower nonsynonymous APOBEC3 mutation burden compared to controls. We replicate the low prevalence of HPV16 APOBEC3-induced mutations in 1,749 additional cases. APOBEC3 mutations also historically contribute to the evolution of HPV16 lineages. We demonstrate that cervical infections with a greater burden of somatic HPV16 APOBEC3-induced mutations are more likely to be benign or subsequently clear, suggesting they may reduce persistence, and thus progression, within the host.