The fiscal policy response to the COVID‐19 crisis was swift and strong, in tandem with monetary policy. Advanced economies (AEs) deployed a much larger fiscal response than emerging market economies (EMEs) throughout the pandemic. This study focuses on the drivers of this divergent fiscal response in the first months of the pandemic. Apart from the fact that EMEs entered the crisis later than AEs, narrower fiscal policy space in EMEs, further reduced by the tightening of their financing conditions in the early stages of the pandemic, constrained their fiscal response. The size and composition of the fiscal response also depended on some structural factors, such as the level of income, the strength of the social safety nets and automatic stabilisers.

This paper studies the joint transitional dynamics of the foreclosures and house prices in a standard life‐cycle incomplete markets model with housing and a realistic long‐term mortgage structure. We calibrate our model to match several long‐term features of the U.S. housing market, and analyze the effects of several unexpected and permanent shocks on the house price and the foreclosure rate both across the steady states and along the transition between the steady states. We examine permanent, unexpected shocks to the risk‐free interest rate, the minimum down‐payment ratio, and unemployment. During the transition, these shocks create large movements in house prices. More importantly, the foreclosure dynamics are quite significant along the transition compared to the steady‐state changes, and there are strong feedbacks between foreclosures and house prices. We assess the effects of a temporary reduction in the risk‐free interest rate, which has moderate effects on house prices but little effect on foreclosure dynamics. We also study the effects of an ex ante macroprudential policy, which establishes a minimum down‐payment requirement at a higher threshold. Such a macroprudential policy helps substantially stabilize both house prices and foreclosures.

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The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we use a confidential firm level panel data set (Business Tendency Survey) from Turkey to form three uncertainty measures, namely total, idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. In particular, we construct expectation errors of firms by comparing their survey responses about expectations and realizations on their production volume. Our results reveal countercyclical relationships between our uncertainty measures and economic activity. We further show that a one standard deviation increase in aggregate uncertainty is followed by a 0.5 percent decline in year-on-year change of industrial production on impact. The prolonged effect reaches more than 4.7 percent in a year for any of these three measures.

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