Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, h , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. Computed h limits predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new National Parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1°C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Competition between animals for limited resources often involves signaling to establish ownership or dominance. In some species, the defended resource relates to suitable thermal conditions and refuge from predators. This is particularly true of burrow-dwelling lizards such as the Qinghai toad-headed agama (Phrynocephalus vlangalii), which are found on the Tibetan plateau of western China. Male and female lizards occupy separate burrows, which are vital for anti-predator behaviour during warmer months when lizards are active and, crucially, provide shelter from harsh winter conditions. These lizards are readily observed signaling by means of tail displays on the sand dunes they inhabit. Given the selective pressure to hold such a resource, both males and females should exhibit territorial behaviour and we considered this study system to examine in detail how social context influences motion based territorial signaling. We confirmed that territorial signaling was used by both sexes, and by adopting a novel strategy that permitted 3D reconstruction of tail displays, we identified significant variation due to social context. However, signal structure was not related to lizard morphology. Clearly, the burrow is a highly valued resource and we suggest that additional variation in signaling behaviour might be mediated by resource quality.

In lizards, males are predicted to sprint faster and run for longer than females by virtue of higher testosterone levels and differences in morphology. Consequently, escape behaviour is also predicted to be associated with sex and locomotor performance, yet these links have rarely been explored. Here, we tested whether escape behaviour is associated with locomotor performance in the toad-headed agama, Phrynocephalus vlangalii, and whether it is sex-dependent. This species is also characterized by elaborate tail displays, which we examined as a potential pursuit-deterrent signal. Tail waves were performed by a very small proportion (2/58, 3 %) of individuals during predatory trials, suggesting that tail signalling functions exclusively in a social context. To understand the relationships between sex, escape behaviour and performance, we first measured escape behaviour (flight initiation distance, flight distance-measured differently compared to previous studies of lizard escape behaviour, and refuge use) in the field before measuring maximal sprint speed and endurance on the same individuals in the laboratory. Flight initiation distance did not differ between the sexes and was unrelated to performance capacity (maximal endurance and sprint speed) but was positively related to body size with larger individuals fleeing earlier. Males fled farther than females, but flight distance was also unrelated to either endurance or sprint speed. Interestingly, faster females were less likely to enter a refuge than slower females, whereas sprint speed and the probability of taking refuge were unrelated for males. Our results suggest that when males and females are not obviously sexually dimorphic, they are more likely to overlap in escape tactics.