Abstract

The supply chain risk assessment and management system has been developed, people still do not determine the way to overcome all these risks, especially for high impact, low probability events, such as SARS and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, or a centralized terrorist attacks. This is because the lack of historical data to make all kinds of prediction and statistical tools fail. The modern supply chain were more vulnerable to risk, supply chain risk mainly comes from many aspects of the internal and external environment, the supply chain industry products background, upstream and downstream supply chain relationship, decision support. In this paper, the establishment of a complete supply chain model with variable structure, through the simulation method for quantitative observation of supply chain flexibility curve, and abstract to describe the elastic curve of a set of parameters; after the design of simulation experiment to observe the different supply chain structure parameters (inventory level, supply chain, supplier selection for number of sources) influence supply chain resilience curve.