ObjectiveDuring the influenza epidemic season, the fragile elderlies are not only susceptible to influenza infections, but are also more likely to develop severe symptoms and syndromes. Such circumstances may pose a significant burden to the medical resources especially in the emergency department (ED). Disposition of the elderly patients with influenza infections to either the ward or intensive care unit (ICU) accurately is therefore a crucial issue.Study designRetrospective cohort study.Setting and participantsElderly patients (≥65 years) with influenza visiting the ED of a medical centre between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015.Primary outcome measuresDemographic data, vital signs, medical history, subtype of influenza, national early warning score (NEWS) and outcomes (mortality) were analysed. We investigated the ability of NEWS to predict ICU admission via logistic regression and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.ResultsWe included 409 geriatric patients in the ED with a mean age of 79.5 years and approximately equal sex ratio. The mean NEWS ±SD was 3.4±2.9, and NEWS ≥8 was reported in 11.0% of the total patients. Logistic regression revealed that NEWS ≥8 predicted ICU admission with an OR of 5.37 (95% CI 2.61 to 11.04). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was calculated as 0.95, and the adjusted area under the ROC was 0.72. An NEWS ≥8 is associated with ICU-admission and may help to triage elderly patients with influenza infections during the influenza epidemic season.ConclusionThe high specificity of NEWS ≥8 to predict ICU admission in elderly patients with influenza infection during the epidemic season may avoid unnecessary ICU admissions and ensure proper medical resource allocation.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is used to predict the prognosis of various diseases, such as coronavirus disease 2019, community-acquired pneumonia, bacteremia, and endocarditis. However, NLR has never been reported to predict patient discharge in geriatric patients with influenza infection. This retrospective case-control study enrolled geriatric patients (≥65 years) with influenza virus infection who visited the emergency department of a medical center between January 01, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, influenza subtypes, outcomes, and disposition were analyzed. The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict patient discharge was determined using the Youden index. We also evaluated the accuracy of NLR in predicting patient discharge using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. The study included 409 geriatric patients in the emergency department with a mean age of 79.5 years and an approximately equal sex ratio. NLR was significantly lower in the discharged group than in the nondischarged group (5.8 ± 3.7 vs 9.7 ± 8.4). Logistic regression revealed that patients with NLR ≤ 6.5 predicted discharge with an odds ratio of 3.62. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was calculated as 0.36, and the adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.75. The negative predictive value of NLR ≤ 6.5, to predict patient discharge, was 91.8%. NLR ≤ 6.5 is a simple and easy-to-obtain laboratory tool to guide the physicians to discharge geriatric patients with influenza infection in the crowded emergency department.