Background: The objective of the study was to determine predictors for upper-limb functional recovery trajectory after occupational therapy in a population with chronic stroke. Methods: In this retrospective secondary analysis, Fugl–Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity (FMA-UE) scores before and after intervention and at the 3-month follow-up were used to divide 105 participants with chronic stroke into three groups of recovery trajectories: fast (participants who reached an improvement of 7 after intervention), extended (those who reached an improvement of 7 at follow-up), and limited (those who did not reach an improvement of 7) recovery. Comparisons among the three groups were made in demographics, stroke characteristics, and baseline assessment scores. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine predictors for group membership. Results: Time after onset of stroke and the baseline scores of FMA-UE, Stroke Impact Scale-Hand (SIS-Hand), Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT)-Quality, WMFT-Time scores, Motor Activity Log-Amount of Use (MAL-AOU), and Motor Activity Log-Quality of Movement (MAL-QOM) scores were significantly different among the three groups. Univariate logistic regressions confirmed that SIS-Hand, WMFT-Quality, WMFT-Time, MAL-AOU, and MAL-QOM were significant predictors for both the fast versus limited recovery group membership and the extended versus limited group membership. Time after stroke onset and baseline FMA-UE were additional predictors for the fast versus limited recovery group membership. Conclusion: These findings may assist healthcare professionals in making optimal therapeutic decisions and in informing clients and caregivers about the outcomes of stroke recovery.