The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is a coupled climate and earth system simulator being developed as a joint initiative of the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO in cooperation with the university community in Australia. The main aim of ACCESS is to develop a national approach to climate and weather prediction model development. Planning for ACCESS development commenced in 2005 and significant progress has been made subsequently. ACCESS-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems were implemented operationally by the Bureau in September 2009 and were marked by significantly increased forecast skill of close to one day for three-day forecasts over the previously operational systems. The fully-coupled ACCESS earth system model has been assembled and tested, and core runs have been completed and submitted for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. Significant progress has been made with ACCESS infrastructure including successful porting to both Solar and Vayu (National Computational Infrastructure (NCI)) machines and development of infrastructure to allow usage by university researchers. This paper provides a description of the NWP component of ACCESS and presents results from detailed verification of the system.

This study uses shipborne cloud radar and surface radiation measurements collected over the Southern Ocean to characterize the cloud frequency, cloud fraction, and cloud radiative effects on the ocean surface. These cloud and radiative properties are also used to evaluate a regional forecast model. Low‐level clouds, either alone or cooccurring with cloud layers aloft, are present ~ 77% of the time in this data set. These clouds either had a very low or a very high cloud fraction at 12 km horizontal resolution, with about half of the clouds characterized by a cloud fraction higher than 80%. Overall, shortwave surface cooling effect dominates longwave heating, with an estimate net radiative cooling of −22 W m−2, resulting from a −71 W m−2 shortwave cooling and a +49 W m−2 longwave heating. A strong relationship between daily surface cloud radiative effect and daily low‐level cloud fraction is found, which, if confirmed with a larger data set, could be exploited in satellite retrievals or model parameterizations for the Southern Ocean. The regional model underestimates the frequency of low‐level clouds but largely overestimates the frequency of multilayer situations. The associated radiative errors are large and complex, including reduced surface radiative cooling due to low‐level clouds compensated by enhanced surface cooling in multilayer situations.

ACCESS-S2 is a major upgrade to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's multi-week to seasonal prediction system. It was made operational in October 2021, replacing ACCESS-S1. The focus of the upgrade is the addition of a new weakly coupled data assimilation system to provide initial conditions for atmosphere, ocean, land and ice fields. The model is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction system and is unchanged from ACCESS-S1, aside from minor corrections and enhancements. The performance of the assimilation system and the skill of the seasonal and multi-week forecasts have been assessed and compared to ACCESS-S1. There are improvements in the ACCESS-S2 initial conditions compared to ACCESS-S1, particularly for soil moisture and aspects of the ocean, notably the ocean currents. More realistic soil moisture initialisation has led to increased skill for forecasts over Australia, especially those of maximum temperature. The ACCESS-S2 system is shown to have increased skill of El Nino-Southern Oscillation forecasts over ACCESS-S1 during the challenging autumn forecast period. Analysis suggests that ACCESS-S2 will deliver improved operational forecast accuracy in comparison to ACCESS-S1. Assessments of the operational forecasts are underway. ACCESS-S2 represents another step forward in the development of seasonal forecast systems at the Bureau of Meteorology. However, key rainfall and sea surface temperature biases in ACCESS-S1 remain in ACCESS-S2, indicating where future efforts should be focused.

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Background Participating in regular physical activity contributes to significant improvements of quality of life (QOL) in adults. Understanding psychosocial factors that influence physical activity and QOL in working adults may have important implications for future interventions aimed at improving their health. The major purpose of this study was to investigate the psychosocial predictors of physical activity and QOL among Shanghai working adults. Methods Participants were 238 working adults ( M age = 51.6 ± 5.6) living in Shanghai communities, China. They completed previously validated questionnaires assessing their perceptions of stress, social support from friends, self-efficacy, physical activity, and QOL. Pearson correlations were computed to assess the associations among physical activity, QOL, and psychosocial variables. Path analysis was used to test the predictive strengths of psychosocial factors on physical activity and QOL among Shanghai working adults. Results The results indicated that stress had directly negative relationships on self-efficacy and QOL. Social support had directly positive relationships on self-efficacy, physical activity, and QOL. Physical activity had directly positive relationship on QOL. Self-efficacy and physical activity mediated the influences of stress and social support on QOL. Conclusions: Stress and social support from friends were two important sources of self-efficacy, all of which facilitated more physical activity participation. Lower stress, higher social support, and more physical activity may directly increase QOL among Shanghai working adults. The mediating roles of self-efficacy and physical activity should be taken into account in managing stress and social support in order to promote QOL among Shanghai working adults.