Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan city. The estimated R 0 was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious period. 95% confidence interval of R 0 were also reported. Potential issues such as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were discussed.
BackgroundLittle is known about how individuals engage with electronic health (eHealth) interventions over time and whether this engagement predicts health outcomes.ObjectiveThe objectives of this study, by using the example of a specific type of eHealth intervention (ie, websites for smoking cessation), were to determine (1) distinct groups of log-in trajectories over a 12-month period, (2) their association with smoking cessation, and (3) baseline user characteristics that predict trajectory group membership.MethodsWe conducted a functional clustering analysis of 365 consecutive days of log-in data from both arms of a large (N=2637) randomized trial of 2 website interventions for smoking cessation (WebQuit and Smokefree), with a primary outcome of 30-day point prevalence smoking abstinence at 12 months. We conducted analyses for each website separately.ResultsA total of 3 distinct trajectory groups emerged for each website. For WebQuit, participants were clustered into 3 groups: 1-week users (682/1240, 55.00% of the sample), 5-week users (399/1240, 32.18%), and 52-week users (159/1240, 12.82%). Compared with the 1-week users, the 5- and 52-week users had 57% higher odds (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% CI 1.13-2.17; P=.007) and 124% higher odds (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.45-3.43; P<.001), respectively, of being abstinent at 12 months. Smokefree users were clustered into 3 groups: 1-week users (645/1309, 49.27% of the sample), 4-week users (395/1309, 30.18%), and 5-week users (269/1309, 20.55%). Compared with the 1-week users, 5-week users (but not 4-week users; P=.99) had 48% higher odds (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.05-2.07; P=.02) of being abstinent at 12 months. In general, the WebQuit intervention had a greater number of weekly log-ins within each of the 3 trajectory groups as compared with those of the Smokefree intervention. Baseline characteristics associated with trajectory group membership varied between websites.ConclusionsPatterns of 1-, 4-, and 5-week usage of websites may be common for how people engage in eHealth interventions. The 5-week usage of either website, and 52-week usage only of WebQuit, predicted a higher odds of quitting smoking. Strategies to increase eHealth intervention engagement for 4 more weeks (ie, from 1 week to 5 weeks) could be highly cost effective.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01812278; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01812278 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6yPO2OIKR)
The evolving HIV prevention landscape poses challenges to the statistical design of future trials of candidate HIV vaccines. Study designs must address the anticipated reduction in HIV incidence due to adding new prevention modalities to the standard prevention package provided to trial participants, and must also accommodate individual choices of participants with regard to the use of these modalities. We explore four potential trial designs that address these challenges, with a focus on accommodating the newest addition to the prevention package-antiretroviral-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). The designs differ with respect to how individuals who take up oral PrEP at screening are handled. An All-Comers Design enrolls and randomizes all eligible individuals, a Decliners Design enrolls and randomizes only those who decline PrEP at screening, and Single and Multi-Stage Run-In Designs enroll all but randomize only those who decline PrEP or show inadequate adherence to PrEP after one or multiple run-in periods. We compare these designs with respect to required sample sizes, study duration, and resource requirements, using a simulation model that incorporates data on HIV risk and PrEP uptake and adherence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Americas. We advocate considering Run-In Designs for some future contexts, and identify their advantages and tradeoffs relative to the other designs. The design concepts apply beyond HIV vaccines to other prevention modalities being developed with the aim to achieve further reductions in HIV incidence.
SummaryGiven recent advances in HIV prevention, future trials of many experimental interventions are likely to be “active-controlled” designs, whereby HIV negative individuals are randomized to the experimental intervention or an active control known to be effective based on a historical trial. The efficacy of the experimental intervention to prevent HIV infection relative to placebo cannot be evaluated directly based on the trial data alone. One approach that has been proposed is to leverage an HIV exposure marker, such as incident rectal gonorrhea which is highly correlated with HIV infection in populations of men who have sex with men (MSM). Assuming we can fit a model associating HIV incidence and incidence of the exposure marker, based on data from multiple historical studies, incidence of the marker in the active-controlled trial population can be used to infer the HIV incidence that would have been observed had a placebo arm been included, i.e. a “counterfactual placebo”, and to evaluate efficacy of the experimental intervention relative to this counterfactual placebo. We formalize this approach and articulate the underlying assumptions, develop an estimation approach and evaluate its performance in finite samples, and discuss the implications of our findings for future development and application of the approach in HIV prevention. Improved HIV exposure markers and careful assessment of assumptions and study of their violation are needed before the approach is applied in practice.
Maintaining high medication adherence is essential for achieving desired efficacy in clinical trials, especially prevention trials. However, adherence is traditionally measured by self-reports that are subject to reporting biases and measurement error. Recently, electronic medication dispenser devices have been adopted in several HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis prevention studies. These devices are capable of collecting objective, frequent, and timely drug adherence data. The device opening signals generated by such devices are often represented as regularly or irregularly spaced discrete functional data, which are challenging for statistical analysis. In this paper we focus on clustering the adherence monitoring data from such devices. We first pre-process the raw discrete functional data into smoothed functional data. Parametric mixture models with change-points, as well as several non-parametric and semi-parametric functional clustering approaches are adapted and applied to the smoothed adherence data. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate finite sample performances, on the choices of tuning parameters in the pre-processing step as well as the relative performance of different clustering algorithms. We applied these methods to the HIV Prevention Trials Network(HPTN) 069 study for identifying subgroups with distinct adherence behavior over the study period.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.