Objective: To compare the performance of machine learning models against the traditionally derived Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) model and the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status (ASA-PS) in the prediction of 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay >24 hours. Background: Prediction of surgical risk preoperatively is important for clinical shared decision-making and planning of health resources such as ICU beds. The current growth of electronic medical records coupled with machine learning presents an opportunity to improve the performance of established risk models. Methods: All patients aged 18 years and above who underwent noncardiac and nonneurological surgery at Singapore General Hospital (SGH) between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 were included. Patient demographics, comorbidities, preoperative laboratory results, and surgery details were obtained from their electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the observations were randomly selected for training, leaving 30% for testing. Baseline models were CARES and ASA-PS. Candidate models were trained using random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, and support vector machine. Models were evaluated on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Results: A total of 90,785 patients were included, of whom 539 (0.6%) died within 30 days and 1264 (1.4%) required ICU admission >24 hours postoperatively. Baseline models achieved high AUROCs despite poor sensitivities by predicting all negative in a predominantly negative dataset. Gradient boosting was the best performing model with AUPRCs of 0.23 and 0.38 for mortality and ICU admission outcomes respectively. Conclusions: Machine learning can be used to improve surgical risk prediction compared to traditional risk calculators. AUPRC should be used to evaluate model predictive performance instead of AUROC when the dataset is imbalanced.

ObjectivesStudies in western healthcare settings suggest that preoperative anaemia is associated with poor outcomes after elective orthopaedic surgery. We investigated the prevalence of preoperative anaemia among patients with primary unilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in Singapore and its association with length of hospital stay (LOS), perioperative blood transfusion and hospital readmission rates.MethodsRetrospective cohort study performed in a tertiary academic medical centre in Singapore, involving patients who underwent primary unilateral TKA between January 2013 and June 2014. Demographics, comorbidities, preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) level, LOS and 30-day readmission data were collected. Anaemia was classified according to WHO definition. Prolonged LOS was defined as more than 6 days, which corresponds to >75th centile LOS of the data.ResultsWe analysed 2394 patients. The prevalence of anaemia was 23.7%. 403 patients (16.8%) had mild anaemia and 164 patients (6.8%) had moderate to severe anaemia. Overall mean LOS was 5.4±4.8 days. Based on multivariate logistic regression, preoperative anaemia significantly increased LOS (mild anaemia, adjusted OR (aOR) 1.71, p<0.001; moderate/severe anaemia, aOR 2.29, p<0.001). Similar effects were seen when preoperative anaemia was defined by Hb level below 13 g/dL, regardless of gender. Transfusion proportionately increased prolonged LOS (1 unit: aOR 2.12, p=0.006; 2 or more units: aOR 6.71, p<0.001). Repeat operation during hospital stay, previous cerebrovascular accidents, general anaesthesia and age >70 years were associated with prolonged LOS. Our 30-day related readmission rate was 1.7% (42) cases.ConclusionAnaemia is common among patients undergoing elective TKA in Singapore and is independently associated with prolonged LOS and increased perioperative blood transfusion. We suggest measures to correct anaemia prior to surgery, including the use of non-gender-based Hb cut-off for establishing diagnosis.

IntroductionAccurate surgical risk prediction is paramount in clinical shared decision making. Existing risk calculators have limited value in local practice due to lack of validation, complexities and inclusion of non-routine variables.ObjectiveWe aim to develop a simple, locally derived and validated surgical risk calculator predicting 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay (>24 hours) based on routinely collected preoperative variables. We postulate that accuracy of a clinical history-based scoring tool could be improved by including readily available investigations, such as haemoglobin level and red cell distribution width.MethodologyElectronic medical records of 90 785 patients, who underwent non-cardiac and non-neuro surgery between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 in Singapore General Hospital, were retrospectively analysed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, surgical priority and surgical risk were collected. Outcome measures were death within 30 days after surgery and ICU admission. After excluding patients with missing data, the final data set consisted of 79 914 cases, which was divided randomly into derivation (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to construct a single model predicting both outcomes using Odds Ratio (OR) of the risk variables. The ORs were then assigned ranks, which were subsequently used to construct the calculator.ResultsObserved mortality was 0.6%. The Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator, consisting of nine variables, was constructed. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) in the derivation and validation cohorts for mortality were 0.934 (0.917–0.950) and 0.934 (0.912–0.956), respectively, while the AUROC for ICU admission was 0.863 (0.848–0.878) and 0.837 (0.808–0.868), respectively. CARES also performed better than the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status classification in terms of AUROC comparison.ConclusionThe development of the CARES surgical risk calculator allows for a simplified yet accurate prediction of both postoperative mortality and need for ICU admission after surgery.

IntroductionPreoperative anemia and high red cell distribution width (RDW) are associated with higher perioperative mortality. Conditions with high RDW levels can be categorized by mean corpuscular volume (MCV). The relationship between RDW, anemia and MCV may explain causality between high RDW levels and outcomes. We aim to establish the prevalence of preoperative anemia and distribution of RDW and MCV among pre-surgical patients in Singapore. In addition, we aim to investigate the association between preoperative anemia, RDW and MCV levels with one-year mortality after surgery.MethodsRetrospective review of 97,443 patients aged > = 18 years who underwent cardiac and non-cardiac surgeries under anesthesia between January 2012 and October 2016. Patient demographics, comorbidities, priority of surgery, surgical risk classification, perioperative transfusion, preoperative hemoglobin, RDW, MCV were collected. WHO anemia classification was used. High RDW was defined as >15.7%. Multivariate regression analyses were done to identify independent risk factors for mild or moderate/severe anemia and high RDW (>15.7). Multivariate cox regression analysis was done to determine the effect of preoperative anemia, abnormal RDW and MCV values on 1-year mortality.ResultsOur cohort comprised of 94.7% non-cardiac and 5.3% cardiac surgeries. 88.7% of patients achieved 1 year follow-up. Anemia prevalence was 27.8%—mild anemia 15.3%, moderate anemia 12.0% and severe anemia 0.5%. One-year mortality was 3.5%. Anemia increased with age in males, while in females, anemia was more prevalent between 18–49 years and > = 70 years. Most anemics were normocytic. Normocytosis and macrocytosis increased with age, while microcytosis decreased with age. Older age, male gender, higher ASA-PS score, anemia (mild- aHR 1.98; moderate/severe aHR 2.86), macrocytosis (aHR 1.47), high RDW (aHR 2.34), moderate-high risk surgery and emergency surgery were associated with higher hazard ratios of one-year mortality.DiscussionPreoperative anemia is common. Anemia, macrocytosis and high RDW increases one year mortality.

Preoperative anemia (hemoglobin <10.0 g/dL) is associated with poorer physical function and HRQoL after hip fracture surgery. Perioperative blood transfusion and predischarge anemia had no effect.