No abstract

We have developed a Mainland China Composite Damaging Earthquake Catalog (MCCDE-CAT), which contains seismic source and socioeconomic damage information, population exposure, and seismic intensity maps of earthquakes that occurred from 1950 to 2018. The completeness and consistency of the data in past damaging earthquake catalogs are crucial to better understanding the damage to our social and economic system from future earthquakes. Although many disaster databases are currently available worldwide, they show a serious lack of data and no consistency. To develop the MCCDE-CAT, we cross-checked and integrated earthquake damage information based on six kinds of earthquake catalogs for Mainland China. Missing information in these catalogs was supplied from records in journal publications and reports published by the government and relevant institutions. We also performed a statistical analysis of the data in the MCCDE-CAT and preliminarily discuss the temporal and spatial characteristics of earthquake disasters and socioeconomic losses in Mainland China. The MCCDE-CAT will contribute to loss estimation for damaging earthquakes, earthquake-related product pricing in the reinsurance industry, and other related fields. More importantly, the MCCDE-CAT will be publicly accessible and provide a basis for researchers to pursue other earthquake disaster-related studies.

At present, earthquakes cannot be predicted. Scientific decision-making and rescue after an earthquake are the main means of mitigating the immediate consequences of earthquake disasters. If emergency response level and earthquake-related fatalities can be estimated rapidly and quantitatively, this estimation will provide timely, scientific guidance to government organizations and relevant institutions to make decisions on earthquake relief and resource allocation, thereby reducing potential losses. To achieve this goal, a rapid earthquake fatality estimation method for Mainland China is proposed herein, based on a combination of physical simulations and empirical statistics. The numerical approach was based on the three-dimensional (3-D) curved grid finite difference method (CG-FDM), implemented for graphics processing unit (GPU) architecture, to rapidly simulate the entire physical propagation of the seismic wavefield from the source to the surface for a large-scale natural earthquake over a 3-D undulating terrain. Simulated seismic intensity data were used as an input for the fatality estimation model to estimate the fatality and emergency response level. The estimation model was developed by regression analysis of the data on human loss, intensity distribution, and population exposure from the Mainland China Composite Damaging Earthquake Catalog (MCCDE-CAT). We used the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake as a study case to provide estimated results within 1 h after the earthquake. The number of fatalities estimated by the model was in the range of 0–10 (five expected fatalities). Therefore, Level IV earthquake emergency response plan should have been activated (the government actually overestimated the damage and activated a Level II emergency response plan). The local government finally reported three deaths during this earthquake, which is consistent with the model predictions. We also conducted a case study on a 2013 Ms7.0 earthquake in the discussion, which further proved the effectiveness of the method. The proposed method will play an important role in post-earthquake emergency response and disaster assessment in Mainland China. It can assist decision-makers to undertake scientifically-based actions to mitigate the consequences of earthquakes and could be used as a reference approach for any country or region.

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<p>At present, seismic prediction technology is still not available. Scientific decision-making and rescue after an earthquake are the main means of mitigating the immediate consequences of earthquake disasters. If earthquake emergency response level, fatalities, and economic losses can be estimated rapidly and quantitatively, this estimation will provide timely, scientific guidance to government organizations and relevant institutions to make decisions on earthquake relief and resource allocation, thereby reducing potential losses and more conducive to the implementation of social activities such as post-disaster reconstruction and reinsurance. To achieve this goal, a rapid earthquake disaster loss estimation method is proposed herein, based on a combination of physical simulations and empirical statistics. The numerical approach was based on the three-dimensional curved grid finite difference method (CG-FDM), implemented for graphics processing unit (GPU) architecture, to rapidly simulate the entire physical propagation of the seismic wavefield from the source to the surface for a large-scale natural earthquake over a 3-D undulating terrain. Simulated seismic intensity data were used as input for the earthquake disaster loss estimation model to estimate the fatality, economic loss, and emergency response level. The estimation model was developed by regression analysis of the data on human loss, economic loss, intensity distribution, and population exposure from the composite damaging earthquake catalog. We used the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake as a study case to provide estimated results. The number of fatalities estimated by the model was in the range of 0–10 (five expected fatalities). The most probable economic loss range was 1–10 billion RMB (the expected economic loss was 4.862 billion RMB). Therefore, Level IV earthquake emergency response plan should have been activated (the government actually overestimated the damage and activated a Level II emergency response plan). The local government finally reported three deaths and 3.32 billion RMB economic losses during this earthquake, which is consistent with the model predictions.</p>