ABSTRACT:In recent two decades, North and Northeast China have suffered from severe and persistent droughts while the Yangtze River basin and South China have undergone much more significant heavy rainfall/floods events. This longterm change in the summer precipitation and associated large-scale monsoon circulation features have been examined by using the new dataset of 740 surface stations for recent 54 years and about 123-yr (1880-2002) records of precipitation in East China. The following new findings have been highlighted: (1) One dominating mode of the interdecadal variability of the summer precipitation in China is the near-80-yr oscillation. Other modes of 12-yr and 30-40-yr oscillations also play an important role in affecting regional inter-decadal variability. (2) In recent 54 years, the spatial pattern of the inter-decadal variability of summer precipitation in China is mainly structured with two meridional modes: the dipole pattern and the positive-negative-positive ("+ − +" pattern). In this period, a regime transition of meridional precipitation mode from "+ − +" pattern to dipole pattern has been completed. In the process of southward movement of much precipitation zone, two abrupt climate changing points that occurred in 1978 and 1992, respectively, were identified. (3) Accompanying the afore-described precipitation changes, the East Asian summer monsoon have experienced significant weakening, with northward moisture transport and convergence by the East Asian summer monsoon greatly weakened, thus leading to much deficient moisture supply for precipitation in North China. (4) The significant weakening of the component of the tropical upper-level easterly jet (TEJ) has made a dominating contribution to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon system. The cooling in the high troposphere at mid-and high latitudes and the possible warming at low latitude in the Asian region is likely to be responsible for the inter-decadal weakening of the TEJ.

INTRODUCTION The influence of El Niño on climate is accompanied by large changes to the carbon cycle, and El Niño–induced variability in the carbon cycle has been attributed mainly to the tropical continents. However, owing to a dearth of observations in the tropics, tropical carbon fluxes are poorly quantified, and considerable debate exists over the dominant mechanisms (e.g., plant growth, respiration, fire) and regions (e.g., humid versus semiarid tropics) on the net carbon balance. RATIONALE The launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) shortly before the 2015–2016 El Niño, the second strongest since the 1950s, has provided an opportunity to understand how tropical land carbon fluxes respond to the warm and dry climate characteristics of El Niño conditions. The El Niño events may also provide a natural experiment to study the response of tropical land carbon fluxes to future climate changes, because anomalously warm and dry tropical environments typical of El Niño are expected to be more frequent under most emission scenarios. RESULTS The tropical regions of three continents (South America, Asia, and Africa) had heterogeneous responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño, in terms of both climate drivers and the carbon cycle. The annual mean precipitation over tropical South America and tropical Asia was lower by 3.0σ and 2.8σ, respectively, in 2015 relative to the 2011 La Niña year. Tropical Africa, on the other hand, had near equal precipitation and the same number of dry months between 2015 and 2011; however, surface temperatures were higher by 1.6σ, dominated by the positive anomaly over its eastern and southern regions. In response to the warmer and drier climate anomaly in 2015, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere than in 2011, which accounts for 83.3% of the global total 3.0–gigatons of carbon (gigatons C) net biosphere flux differences and 92.6% of the atmospheric CO 2 growth-rate differences between 2015 and 2011. It indicates that the tropical land biosphere flux anomaly was the driver of the highest atmospheric CO 2 growth rate in 2015. The three tropical continents had an approximately even contribution to the pantropical net carbon flux anomaly in 2015, but had diverse dominant processes: gross primary production (GPP) reduced carbon uptake (0.9 ± 0.96 gigatons C) in tropical South America, fire increased carbon release (0.4 ± 0.08 gigatons C) in tropical Asia, and respiration increased carbon release (0.6 ± 1.01 gigatons C) in Africa. We found that most of the excess carbon release in 2015 was associated with either extremely low precipitation or high temperatures, or both. CONCLUSION Our results indicate that the global El Niño effect is a superposition of regionally specific effects. The heterogeneous climate forcing and carbon response over the three tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability, which could also be due to previous disturbance and soil and vegetation structure. The similarity between the 2015 tropical climate anomaly and the projected climate changes imply that the role of the tropical land as a buffer for fossil fuel emissions may be reduced in the future. The heterogeneous response may reflect differences in temperature and rainfall anomalies, but intrinsic differences in vegetation species, soils, and prior disturbance may contribute as well. A synergistic use of multiple satellite observations and a long time series of spatially resolved fluxes derived from sustained satellite observations will enable tests of these hypotheses, allow for a more process-based understanding, and, ultimately, aid improved carbon-climate model projections. Diverse climate driver anomalies and carbon cycle responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño over the three tropical continents. Schematic of climate anomaly patterns over the three tropical continents and the anomalies of the net carbon flux and its dominant constituent flux (i.e., GPP, respiration, and fire) relative to the 2011 La Niña during the 2015–2016 El Niño. GtC, gigatons C.

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Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

INTRODUCTION Reliable estimation of gross primary production (GPP) from landscape to global scales is pivotal to a wide range of ecological research areas, such as carbon-climate feedbacks, and agricultural applications, such as crop yield and drought monitoring. However, measuring GPP at these scales remains a major challenge. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a signal emitted directly from the core of photosynthetic machinery. SIF integrates complex plant physiological functions in vivo to reflect photosynthetic dynamics in real time. The advent of satellite SIF observation promises a new era in global photosynthesis research. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) SIF product is a serendipitous but critically complementary by-product of OCO-2’s primary mission target—atmospheric column CO 2 ( X CO 2 ). OCO-2 SIF removes some important roadblocks that prevent wide and in-depth applications of satellite SIF data sets and offers new opportunities for studying the SIF-GPP relationship and vegetation functional gradients at different spatiotemporal scales. RATIONALE Compared with earlier satellite missions with SIF capability, the OCO-2 SIF product has substantially improved spatial resolution, data acquisition, and retrieval precision. These improvements allow satellite SIF data to be validated, for the first time, directly against ground and airborne measurements and also used to investigate the SIF-GPP relationship and terrestrial ecosystem functional dynamics with considerably better spatiotemporal credibility. RESULTS Coordinated airborne measurements of SIF with the Chlorophyll Fluorescence Imaging Spectrometer (CFIS) were used to validate OCO-2 retrievals. The validation shows close agreement between OCO-2 and CFIS SIF, with a regression slope of 1.02 and R 2 of 0.71. Landscape gradients in SIF emission, corresponding to differences in vegetation types, were clearly delineated by OCO-2, a capability that was lacking in previous satellite missions. The SIF-GPP relationships at eddy covariance flux sites in the vicinity of OCO-2 orbital tracks were found to be more consistent across biomes than previously suggested. Finally, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on OCO-2 SIF and available GPP products show highly consistent spatiotemporal correspondence in their leading EOF modes across the globe, suggesting that SIF and GPP are governed by similar dynamics and controlled by similar environmental and biological conditions. CONCLUSION OCO-2 represents a major advance in satellite SIF remote sensing. Our analyses suggest that SIF is a powerful proxy for GPP at multiple spatiotemporal scales and that high-quality satellite SIF is of central importance to studying terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Although the possibility of a universal SIF-GPP relationship across different biome types cannot be dismissed, in-depth process-based studies are needed to unravel the true nature of covariations between SIF and GPP. Of critical importance in such efforts are the potential coordinated dynamics between the light-use efficiencies of CO 2 assimilation and fluorescence emission in response to changes in climate and vegetation characteristics. Eventual synergistic uses of SIF with atmospheric CO 2 enabled by OCO-2 will lead to more reliable estimates of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks—when, where, why, and how carbon is exchanged between land and atmosphere—as well as a deeper understanding of carbon-climate feedbacks. The marked ecological gradients depicted by OCO-2’s high-resolution SIF measurements along a transect of temperate deciduous forests, crops, and urban area from Indiana to suburban Chicago, Illinois.